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Fearless forecasters wrong for 6 MONTHS!


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 01:49 PM

I'm trying to get a handle on what this means.
I think that maybe we are better at tomorrow than next week.??? I hope.
Maybe our weekly view is influenced more by our own sentiment.???
Of course the number of pollees varies from 27 to 53 so just a few wrong bear voters could make the difference. (You know who you are.) :lol:


If you look at selecto's weekly poll, you will see an almost constant bearish call since the July bottom.
If you were trading off of this, your account would have gone from +$683 on 7/14/06 to -$609 on 12/15/06!!!
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The AAII chart was remarkably negative in July and has yet to get above the mid 60's.
If I remember correctly, Sentimentrader.com was very slow to show any bullishness.

THE RALLY WAS NOT BELIEVED.
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Could it be: INFLUENCED BY THE NEWS rather than the charts?
Inverted yield curve, Housing crash, War, Recession, Inflation....

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 December 2006 - 02:10 PM.


#2 selecto

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 02:06 PM

Yea? Well to quote the Brooklyn Dodgers, "Wait 'till next year." :)