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expecting a strong and robust 2007


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#1 greenie

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 05:20 PM

Third year of presidential cycle is always the strongest. January is the strongest month of typical third year presidential cycle. Housing bust will be restricted to that sector. In any case, housing sector is showing signs of bottoming. Economy will slowdown somewhat in the early part of the year due to housing, but then pick up again in late 2007 and 2008. Stock market will anticipate that pickup in economy 6-9 months before. Long term yields are going down and it will help the homeowners refinance again. Oil price is going down too. There is no possibility of consumer spending slowdown, because the Fed will make sure it does not happen. Technically, even if the most bearish scenario (that the markets is close to an IT top) holds, there will be a last blowout rally to spook all the early bears. First few days of January are usually strong, and then we have WWW and options expiration, a period when the market always sees rallies. Overall, I do not see any strong argument to be bearish this year, and especially in the first 2-3 months. If anyone can present the bearish case (technical or fundamental), I will be happy to hear.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#2 paulstan

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 05:44 PM

"Housing bust will be restricted to that sector. In any case, housing sector is showing signs of bottoming." Greenie -- how can you refer to it as a "bust" and also declare that it's showing signs of bottoming? What has occured thus far would be far from a bust by most people's thinking.

#3 snorkels4

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 06:31 PM

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http://www.zimbio.co...Veyron Crashing

#4 CLK

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 06:37 PM

One day of buying and recession and bear market are thrown out the window. :lol:

#5 flyers&divers

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 06:52 PM

I take the liberty of pasting this comment from one of my favorite sources: Jason Goepfert from Sentimenttrader.com

The Case of the Missing Hedger



When I somehow steel myself to watch financial television, or read popular magazine forecasts for 2007, I'm always struck by the overwhelming consensus of opinion. Almost to a one, experts are expecting another year of good gains for equities.

[
wonderful article removed at the request of Mssr. Goepfert by the Admin]

Edited by OEXCHAOS, 03 January 2007 - 10:08 AM.

"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#6 A-ha

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 08:13 PM

Seasonality and cycles... The big hooks that can truly wipe one out. They never worked last year and will not work next year given the current circumstances. This could be the ugliest presidential cycle since the formation of Mount Ararat.

#7 greenie

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 08:35 PM

The post above is my summary of the conventional wisdom I heard in the media over last few days. These people are professionals - they must all be good :)
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#8 A-ha

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 08:41 PM

I got the feeling it wasnt you but I wasnt sure.... after such a long holiday, I lost my edge :D

#9 spielchekr

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 09:06 PM

F&D: Interesting read. A well-hedged conclusion, too. :lol: But in all honesty, who can be faulted for that at this point?

#10 endisnear

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Posted 02 January 2007 - 09:13 PM

The post above is my summary of the conventional wisdom I heard in the media over last few days.


These people are professionals - they must all be good :)


good one greenie.....felt kinda sorry for ya for a sec...it was the housing bottom commment that gave it away..