Edited by NAV, 04 January 2007 - 03:26 PM.
Some technical thoughts...
#1
Posted 04 January 2007 - 03:23 PM
#2
Posted 04 January 2007 - 03:56 PM
One fundamental observation - Silicon valley local economy is getting very hot. There are very few skilled workers available in the valley and tons of jobs to choose from. Good news for those who were complaining that their jobs were taken away from outsourcing - Now there's plenty to choose from, that is if you are skilled ! For the first time since 2001, the wages for tech workers have started to move up. So it's not all that gloomy - cheer up !
Reminds me of Sept. 2000 - tons of jobs, lack of competent employees. What does that tell u about corporate profits?
(maybe it is all in Ewaves. I can't read them. The picture changes with season anyway. )
Edited by greenie, 04 January 2007 - 03:58 PM.
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#3
Posted 04 January 2007 - 04:06 PM
Reminds me of Sept. 2000 - tons of jobs, lack of competent employees.
What does that at tell u about corporate profits?
Actually, tons of jobs scenario was in Jan-March 2000. Market broke in March 2000. By Sep 2000 the Monthly trend on SPX was down and the Job market had cooled down. Not the case right now. Anyway, i am a firm disbeliever of fundamental analysis as it relates to markets. So i will stay away from it !- It's very dangerous for my account.
The picture changes with season anyway.
It always does and you cannot ignore it, unless you don't care about your money. There's no certainity in markets. It's just a odds game.
Edited by NAV, 04 January 2007 - 04:07 PM.
#4
Posted 04 January 2007 - 04:25 PM
Edited by NAV, 04 January 2007 - 04:27 PM.
#5
Posted 04 January 2007 - 05:54 PM
#6
Posted 04 January 2007 - 06:21 PM
The market is trying to spend enough time over 1400 so that the correction does not go below 1300. It was the same for 1200 vs 1100, 1300 vs 1200. The liquidity is drying, the volatility will increase. I think 1300-1320 is possible by summer, possibly a 10%+ correction. I have now a top projection around 1450-1460 (SPX) until the market tops off... I doubt that it woes as high as 1470s... I also expect the new highs on SPX to be achieved by spring '08...
- kisa
Kisa,
1320-1300 has been my longstanding IT target. But i get a feeling that it might come from higher levels, from where we are. It appears, i may have to adjust that higher based on where we top out and how the pattern unfolds.
Edited by NAV, 04 January 2007 - 06:28 PM.
#7
Posted 04 January 2007 - 11:31 PM
#8
Posted 05 January 2007 - 02:13 AM
Kisa ---
I am counting on your assesment of SPX levels in the coming months
because it basically is what I am seeing.
Therefore it makes no sense to go IT long at this time.
But ST (2-4 weeks) I am taking a small long position.
Best to you guys and definitely good luck, this market is again turning into a casino until the trend resolves itself...
Edited by kisacik, 05 January 2007 - 02:14 AM.