6 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm Bearish, but I want to be darned careful about it. Statistically, this is very likely to be a decent year or at least to give us a nice rally by this summer.

More in Battle Scars here:

http://www.traders-t...automodule=blog

Also some of our other contributors have new entries, too.

Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

BTW, only one of the past 21 pre-presidential election years failed to give a dandy rally by July. Check out the chart.

[tommyt]

yep...and about 98% out there seem to know it...just like the sep/oct down?, and the post Thanksgiving Friday up?, and the week before Christmas up?, as the first 5 days of Jan go??? ...sooo many are aware of the seasonality/stats these days.

[OEXCHAOS]

I'd say that this stat is poorly understood. That said, my set up right now says, "Down!" Maybe the set up changes over the next week. A down expiration would not surprise me at all. There are a TON of small hedge fund Bulls and precious few aggressively short Bears. Mark

[OEXCHAOS]

Are you guys able to see the CUMULATIVE Breadth chart (not just the breadth A/D)? I've edited it and I'm hoping that stock charts will let me do that. Best, Mark

[dcengr]

I'd say that this stat is poorly understood.

That said, my set up right now says, "Down!"

Maybe the set up changes over the next week. A down expiration would not surprise me at all. There are a TON of small hedge fund Bulls and precious few aggressively short Bears.

Mark

What data gives you small hedge fund bull/bear sentiment?

[OEXCHAOS]

I'd say that this stat is poorly understood.
That said, my set up right now says, "Down!"
Maybe the set up changes over the next week. A down expiration would not surprise me at all. There are a TON of small hedge fund Bulls and precious few aggressively short Bears.
Mark

What data gives you small hedge fund bull/bear sentiment?

I can't discuss that publicly, but I can tell you that we extrapolate from numerous sources.

BTW, I define "Small Hedge Fund" as aggressive directional players who use a lot of leverage and who haven't been professional managers that long. So, I'm not defining these guys by the title of their investment instrument, but rather their style and sophistication. Thus a "small hedge fund" that did nothing but arbitrage wouldn't be of any interest to us. The same thing with a bond fund or a commod fund or even the few guys who still actually HEDGE in their funds (long and short all the time, maybe some options premium capture). Basically, we want to measure the sentiment of aggressive directional players who aren't amateurs but who aren't sleepy big money either.

Mark