5 replies to this topic

[FrankT]

I very rarely post, but I have to give credit to Mark for letting us peek at his Navigator publication on Tuesday. He wrote, "My call for the week will be a rally on Wednesday early that fades, a bounce back on Thursday and down on Friday. " Sometimes this guy is scary. I'm just small potatoes, but I was able to pick up some nice change on his outlook. Now, Mark, who will win in the Wildcard round this weekend.

[OEXCHAOS]

I gotta stick with what I know and I don't know sports.


Thanks for the atta. Love to get them.

Mark

For those who wonder, I wrote this last Tuesday

Conclusion
In last week's Special Update, I noted the downturn in the weekly MACD and advised some caution, but also eschewed all-out Bearishness due to seasonality and the likelihood of a spike higher. GLOBEX trading suggests that we're getting that spike, now. If it holds through tomorrow, we could see a marked improvement in the technical situation. That will not change the sentiment circumstance, however, save to perhaps make it worse. The hedge funds are still leaning very long, and the small speculators are joining them (though they aren't really excessive yet). The big problem for the Bears is that the market has been lingering on an unconfirmed sell now for some time. It's rare that those work out well--if the Bears have too much time to get short, they probably shouldn't be. This looks like a prescription for a final run-for-the-roses rally. That ought to slap the early Bears silly and make them afraid to short the real turn. By the way, when we do get the turn, it will probably be very hard to get comfortably positioned on the short side. Watch for that and don't be afraid to pull the trigger even if it looks like we're oversold. My call for the week will be a rally on Wednesday early that fades, a bounce back on Thursday and down on Friday.

Then on Thursday morning, I wrote:

Conclusion
Last time, I noted that the big problem for the Bears was that the market has been lingering on an unconfirmed sell now for some time and that if the Bears have too much time to get short, they probably shouldn't be. That is basically one of the better scenarios for catching folks wrong-footed. I want to back off that one however. There are few short Bears among speculators. They're already totally off the aggressively short foot. The wild gyrations yesterday, too, serve to make Bears nervous. After all, they can point to the fact that the intra-day high was at or just a spit off all time highs. This is exactly the type of thing that sets up a decline. Technicals remain sloppy, though breadth is still OK. When we do get the turn, we won't feel good about shorting it. That's a Bearish sign. If you want to be tricky, you can probe short on a bounce today (later is better), and day traders can definitely look short with volume support. Intermediate-term traders should be cautious but be prepared to head for the hills. For what it's worth, I think that the rally yesterday fulfills the Senticator Buy.

That's about as good as I get at outright predicting. I'm more of a set-up sort of guy.

[Rogerdodger]

I was thinking the same today.

Someone posted something this morning about Jason at Sentimentrader.

Then I remembered months back when Jason was leaning bearish and Mark was leaning bullish.

You gotta love duelling sentiment guys especially when Mark is on target.

Congrats Mark!

Mark from Oct 5th:

I have to say that while my short-term sentiment showed a jump in Bullishness, my longer-term remains quite constructive--much more than Jason's.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 05 January 2007 - 07:30 PM.

[FrankT]

Actually Mark, my first thoughts were how uncanny your predictions have been lately and the old line from the Church Lady on SNL, "Could it be....Satan?" Thanks again for your incredible insights.

[dcengr]

I'm more interested in his thought process in making that prediction...

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm more interested in his thought process in making that prediction...

I spent quite a bit of time responding to this and when accidentally lost it. I'll try again after we get done with our work. Sorry about that.

Mark