4 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

I put this together before, but BSE corrected while NYA didn't.

I imagine its due to the x-mas light holiday trading. But if the NYA is to "catch-up" pattern wise, we should see it hit NYA around 8700 to 8800 shortly.

[paulstan]

The higher risk markets should lead the US in terms of trend-change. The investors with highest risk appetite will back-off and the high risk markets will should turn before or coincident to ours. The possible top that we have in some asian markets this week would be a classic example of how we'd expect the trend change to evidence itself.

[CLK]

Dcengr, I just don't get the huge ramp in the NDX generals and the CME's. I'm aware that the leaders top first then the market, but to run back against the indices this much ? Can you plot a chart of a custom mix of those against the market compared to previous tops ? RIMM acts like it wants to run to 160.

Edited by CLK, 05 January 2007 - 07:50 PM.

[dcengr]

Dcengr,



I just don't get the huge ramp in the NDX generals and the CME's.

I'm aware that the leaders top first then the market, but to run
back against the indices this much ?


Can you plot a chart of a custom mix of those against the market
compared to previous tops ?


RIMM acts like it wants to run to 160.

I wouldn't know where to start on those.. leaders DID lead the way down, but for the NDX, it had a breakdown failure, mainly because Dow and S&P decided not to go down with it.

Hence all the people shorting the leaders got their asses handed to them when NDX decided to scorch back up to catch up with Dow and S&P.

Now that Dow and S&P may be ready to go down, the leaders are back up again.

Thats about the only way I can explain it. Classic divergence in A-D is when a few stocks hold up the indices while rest of them are rotting below, then those few stocks finally go and reveal the ugliness beneath it. This usually happens on a 5th wave which is a multiday event. To see it unfolding in a few days... the only way I can attribute to it is CES around the corner and the fact this time around, NDX futures were not heavily loaded as previous tops (and NDX was not leading for that matter).

[CLK]

If they jam me here, I may have to give up
holding for a swing.