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My Little Broader Market Indicator


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#1 Sentient Being

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Posted 05 January 2007 - 08:38 PM

sorry no chart. I'm working 12's and don't have time to post it. But I have a broader market indicator made of a combination of broader market indicators such as advancing issues, Volume, High-lows, etc and I'm seeing some interesting readings today. It's reached a point where it starts to become signficant. I think the most likely thing to see is a change of direction, say to up. But also very possible is a consolidation that can then break either way. But I'd be looking for change in the form of less participation and consolidation or an outright change of direction to the upside. My guess is that we are about to change direction. I'm still 100% cash. I'm somewhat disgusted with my own trading and standing back, looking things over. If the market is down thus far this year, guess that puts me AHEAD of the market because I haven't lost anything yet this year. I'd better rejoyce, it wont last long.

Edited by Sentient Being, 05 January 2007 - 08:38 PM.

In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

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#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 01:55 AM

guess that puts me AHEAD of the market because I haven't lost anything yet this year.

I hear that. :D

Buy good stocks and when they go up, sell them.
If they don't go up, don't buy them.
Will Rogers

#3 uncleharley

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Posted 06 January 2007 - 01:50 PM

But I'd be looking for change in the form of less participation and consolidation or an outright change of direction to the upside.


The A/D line for both the nasdaq and the nyse have been indicating a decline in market breadth for a couple of weeks. Usually a market that rises on shrinking participation will turn down soon. Are you looking for a short term rally and then a selloff?

uh

#4 Sentient Being

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Posted 07 January 2007 - 09:39 AM

But I'd be looking for change in the form of less participation and consolidation or an outright change of direction to the upside.


The A/D line for both the nasdaq and the nyse have been indicating a decline in market breadth for a couple of weeks. Usually a market that rises on shrinking participation will turn down soon. Are you looking for a short term rally and then a selloff?

uh


Hey Unk! I'm back at work, last day. Then a week off. I do not have a very sophisticated view of how this tool works. Extremes tend to mean change of direction....which can mean consolidation as opposed to reversal.

Really extreme readings have a clear meaning, draw a trend line and buy buy buy when that trend line breaks.

But readings at this level are somewhat blah and may only mean that there is a consolidation before the trend continues. But they can also often indicate a reversal or swing back up.

I guess my point would be, we have seen broader market activity to the level that a consolidation and reversal is possible.

I'm not trading at all right now. I'm hoping in my week off here to essentially start over. I do have half my pile following Marks service. The other half...I'm up in the air right now. Looking at possiblities for how to trade going forward. I need time to sit down and look over charts and consider what I want to do.
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~