18 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

don't be surprised if major directional moves from commodities to stocks to bonds reverse by the afternoon today i will be all over the spoos

[IndexTrader]

Does the underlying strength in the NDX bother you in terms of your downside expectations? Hard to see significant downside in the SPX while the NDX hangs in or moves higher. IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 09 January 2007 - 10:28 AM.

[A-ha]

Not as long as Semis keep getting hammered. NDX has been getting juice because of the weakness in energy sector which is about to put some sort of a bottom. What you really ask yourself is why some of that money doesn't get cannalized into Semis? I think you know the answer.

Edited by xD&Cox, 09 January 2007 - 10:51 AM.

[dcengr]

This convo sounds like deja vu... on OIH if I recall correctly..

[IndexTrader]

Not as long as Semis keep getting hammered. NDX has been getting juice because of the weakness in energy sector which is about to put some sort of a bottom.

What you really ask yourself is why some of that money doesn't get cannalized into Semis?

I think you know the answer.

Where do you see the Semis getting hammered? They have been up since the start of the year, similar to the NDX.

IT

This convo sounds like deja vu... on OIH if I recall correctly..

Are you saying that NDX is similar to OIH now DC? Seems like a legitmate question to me. The relative strength in NDX is rather obvious at this time. Or maybe you think my comments are fadable...is that what you're saying? Maybe you should make whatever you're saying clear.

IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 09 January 2007 - 11:11 AM.

[greenie]

Hi IT, VXN closed one of the gaps. Maybe the strength in NDX will go away, when both are closed. So far on intraday chart, USO and OIH look like going up, and NDX down. Just my dumb opinion. G. Forgot to add, breadth remains poor though ndx is up. Going on for few days running - something gotta give.

[dcengr]

Not as long as Semis keep getting hammered. NDX has been getting juice because of the weakness in energy sector which is about to put some sort of a bottom.

What you really ask yourself is why some of that money doesn't get cannalized into Semis?

I think you know the answer.

Where do you see the Semis getting hammered? They have been up since the start of the year, similar to the NDX.

IT

This convo sounds like deja vu... on OIH if I recall correctly..

Are you saying that NDX is similar to OIH now DC? Seems like a legitmate question to me. The relative strength in NDX is rather obvious at this time. Or maybe you think my comments are fadable...is that what you're saying? Maybe you should make whatever you're saying clear.

IT

This convo sounds like when you were bullish on OIH and XD was bearish OIH.

As for relative strength in NDX, I'm not sure what you're seeing. I see NDX with a broken trendline, I see it going up while A-D is negative, I see it having a negative McSum.. sure price seems to have jumped up a bit, but you have to remember that was a one day jump. You take that day out, it hasn't shown much strength since then.

[greenie]

Edit. Ok, now I see NDX cratering (on intraday timeframe).

[A-ha]

Where do you see the Semis getting hammered? They have been up since the start of the year, similar to the NDX.

IT

What I am talking about is this....


I have been shorting select Semis since September for 4 months and I am up on that group more than NDX made since the summer lows...

Semis are in a full blooded bear market that will be more visible once the broad market tops out...

Edited by xD&Cox, 09 January 2007 - 11:25 AM.

[IndexTrader]

Not as long as Semis keep getting hammered. NDX has been getting juice because of the weakness in energy sector which is about to put some sort of a bottom.

What you really ask yourself is why some of that money doesn't get cannalized into Semis?

I think you know the answer.

Where do you see the Semis getting hammered? They have been up since the start of the year, similar to the NDX.

IT

This convo sounds like deja vu... on OIH if I recall correctly..

Are you saying that NDX is similar to OIH now DC? Seems like a legitmate question to me. The relative strength in NDX is rather obvious at this time. Or maybe you think my comments are fadable...is that what you're saying? Maybe you should make whatever you're saying clear.

IT

This convo sounds like when you were bullish on OIH and XD was bearish OIH.

As for relative strength in NDX, I'm not sure what you're seeing. I see NDX with a broken trendline, I see it going up while A-D is negative, I see it having a negative McSum.. sure price seems to have jumped up a bit, but you have to remember that was a one day jump. You take that day out, it hasn't shown much strength since then.

I have never traded OIH. I did trade SLB from the long side...with a small profit. XD got stopped out. And I hold NBR from some time ago...profitable although sadly diminished.

Sounds like you're fading me though...which I find laughable from a guy who missed the entire rally from the lows by shorting QQQQ. Sheesh.

IT