14 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

No I didnt short spoos today , didnt get the price. waiting for the 1425 spx cash to be tested. like i predicted yesterday, we got the early bounce then plunge but the bounce was so shallow that it failed to generate a meanful reversal... I believe the big money is waiting at the higher levels to unload. when we get there we should get volume and volatility Meanwhile, my union pacific (aapl) today fulfilled my prediction and scorched the shorts .... as you may remember , i was waiting this move in Jan to short... this cyclical stock has this unique price pattern that is mainly a function of product cycle. I had explain this somewhere here before... so yes i will short it around 95-100, of course depending on the conditions.

Edited by xD&Cox, 09 January 2007 - 05:47 PM.

[A-ha]

one more thing regarding my oil and oil services trades, i have a feeling that i may leave a wrong impression on you. i am not expecting a bull market in energy, this is just a trading position. Swing or position trade you may call...i dont know but like i said i will dump OIH around 136 , and other positions (wft, crude futures and uso) accordingly. with the current recession, there is no way energy could make a significant move on the upside.

Edited by xD&Cox, 09 January 2007 - 05:55 PM.

[dcengr]

You're expecting a back test of the broken trendline in SPX then.

With the current state of RSI5, its more probable it'll go up than not. But if it doesn't, are you going to chase it down?

This must be your product cycle..

Edited by dcengr, 09 January 2007 - 06:00 PM.

[A-ha]

You're expecting a back test of the broken trendline in SPX then.

With the current state of RSI5, its more probable it'll go up than not. But if it doesn't, are you going to chase it down?

no I wont chase it. i think we will have enough time.

as you may remember, i have the third week of January as a potential plunge week.

the other potential one was the week commencing Dec 18 2006 and we got a sell off on NDX about %4 starting exactly on Dec 18 ...but it wasnt even close to what i expected.


i was and am expecting something like %10-%15 plunge in a week as a start

[dcengr]

You're expecting a back test of the broken trendline in SPX then.

With the current state of RSI5, its more probable it'll go up than not. But if it doesn't, are you going to chase it down?

no I wont chase it. i think we will have enough time.

as you may remember, i have the third week of January as a potential plunge week.

the other potential one was the week commencing Dec 18 2006 and we got a sell off on NDX about %4 starting exactly on Dec 18 ...but it wasnt even close to what i expected.


i was and am expecting something like %10-%15 plunge in a week as a start

Here you go.

[A-ha]

Interesting pattern DC, and fits well with what I exactly expect.

[dcengr]

Interesting pattern DC, and fits well with what I exactly expect.

Whats even more interesting is the time frame thats on the bottom of that chart.. 7 months 10 days..

Not quite 3rd week of January, pending where you take point 14.

[A-ha]

I am not familiar with this pattern at all.

[dcengr]

I am not familiar with this pattern at all.

The 1936, 1946, 1966 patterns are sorta this pattern.

The exception is the 1986 pattern.. and I still give that a decent chance of occuring.

Lindsay's work is similar to Gann's work. They took price patterns and basically distilled the average pattern out. Not bad for old dinosaurs without computers.

[BigBadBear]

Is this some kinda bearfest dialogue that is really getting at something ?