Jump to content



Photo

Overall structure from June is still bullish !


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 12:58 AM

ST i expect a downslide to SPX cash 1390 which should occur this week. If the 1390 pivot breaks on a daily closing basis, 1360 should be the next logical expectation. Another powerful advance should ensue after that. ST i am bearish and i am playing the short side right now. I will soon start posting my trades, once i get in sync with the market. Too much of crash talk on this board. When was the last time anyone predicted a crash ? LOL. For a crash to occur, you need EUPHORIA ! Period !. Anything less than that would only lead to bull market corrections. Where's the Euphoria ? I don't see the cafe's and bars filled with folks discussing how easy it was to make money in the last runup from June. If at all anything, it's filled with folks licking their wounds, caught on the wrong side. A crash is happening in the OIL. I still expect OIL to hit $38-40, before the next inflationary cycle begins. The next crash will likely happen in the EURO. I have a target of 1.38-1.40 on EURO, after which it should begin a massive bear market in the EURO and a multi year bull market in the Dollar Index. I have a downside target of 76-78 on the USD index. The top in Euro should also coincide with a top in the stock market based on the e-wave patterns and weekly trends/momentum i am watching. I will post some e-wave charts if and when we hit those levels. All these are long term projections and are practically useless when it comes to trading. Timing and money management is everything when it comes to trading and making money. Everyone is predicting the future. So i thought - What the heck, i will throw in my five cents. Good luck everyone !

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#2 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 02:20 AM

We are quite in alignment for the USD and the stock market's faith... Good luck! Although I think the commodities might benefit a little if that last bit of correction happens in USD...

#3 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 08:11 AM

I'll be taking my lead from OEX.
The million dollar question is "Is E finished?".......There is a slight overlap with top of wave 1 with the C wave marked on the falling wedge but would look better with one more low. If a lower low is to come I have three possible targets...the lower parallel support line shown here at 653.89, the lower BB on the daily is at 652.53 and the daily 50 sma is at 651.68. If we break out the top of the wedge at any time before reaching any of those targets....I don't think it's a fake out. I'm especially watching the MACD, RSI and Full Sto 21,3,3 on the daily. Of course if the wedge bottom doesn't hold...fergitaboudit.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Teaparty, 10 January 2007 - 08:14 AM.


#4 maineman

maineman

    maineman

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,987 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 08:33 AM

TeaParty, I have question about your support levels and how they can be used for trading. I'm assuming you are short? If so, do you exit or "peel off" positions as each level is hit? Or do look at the other supporting data when the time comes and make a decision then, using the support levels as a "guide"? (or do you have standing "buy" orders at each level in anticipation of the next turn up?) Thanks, mm
He who laughs laughs laughs laughs.

My Blog -Maineman Market Advice

#5 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 08:40 AM

Nav, posted this yesterday on another board and ties in with that 1390 target....although I have the top of the wedge/channel at 1394 but 1390 could get hit as long as we close the week above the top of the wedge/channel a move to test the highs or new highs into OPEX Friday or beyond. Today being WWW of course.

................................................................................
..............................................................................

A look at the weekly spx. You know how fond I am of any 8ema...spx has found support there since the summer low. We seem to be pinched between there and the old neckline that kicked off the correction started in 2000....and I'm convinced it still means something in terms of a bull/bear line.....a weekly close above there would probably mean a close on OEX above the .618 mark at 670 ...both bullish implications. HOWEVER...the weekly does look like it's trying to roll......macd cross, RSI has moved below the 70 plane and the 34CCI has broken the 100 plane. What has to be taken out on a weekly closing basis is first the 8ema and then the top of the channel/wedge at approx 1394. A weekly close below 1394 area should get us 1350 fairly quickly...... a full test of last years may high could be in the cards.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1999-01-01&i=p14175576400&a=57601821&r=6875.png

#6 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 08:54 AM

Maineman...I'm actually short ES right now but I'm scalping both ways and looking to get long. To answer your question...I shorted 1425 yesterday and did peal off all the way down to 15.25. I went long at 14.25 but only took a point (which pissed me off) as I watched it all the way back to 22ish. Shorted 20.50 near the close and I'm half off at 1415 looking for 1411. I'll take a long there with a tight stop to try and catch a bottom...if that fails...looking to get long at 1405 again with tight stop. These are support points I have on my ES hourly. That's what I'm doing so hope that answers your question.........Entering these positions as scalps at the moment but would add when other indicators say it's turning into something more. .........tough question to answer really as I don't have any stead fast rule....depends on situation, size and gut. PS: when I'm pealing off a short or long, I'm adjusting stop at same time.

Edited by Teaparty, 10 January 2007 - 08:55 AM.


#7 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 09:06 AM

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=26&i=p53163775122&a=89308538&r=7612.png

#8 qqqqtrdr

qqqqtrdr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,219 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 09:20 AM

NAV: I don't see a crash either at the moment. I do see weakening internals which also prompts me to be on the short side for now. I look at 20 charts and even short term charts are mixed about which direction this market is headed. EWT is definitely looking to the downside. I just know when the market breaks either way we should have a 5 - 8% move either way. Barry

#9 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 10 January 2007 - 10:23 AM

Nav, posted this yesterday on another board and ties in with that 1390 target....although I have the top of the wedge/channel at 1394 but 1390 could get hit as long as we close the week above the top of the wedge/channel a move to test the highs or new highs into OPEX Friday or beyond. Today being WWW of course.

................................................................................
..............................................................................

A look at the weekly spx. You know how fond I am of any 8ema...spx has found support there since the summer low. We seem to be pinched between there and the old neckline that kicked off the correction started in 2000....and I'm convinced it still means something in terms of a bull/bear line.....a weekly close above there would probably mean a close on OEX above the .618 mark at 670 ...both bullish implications. HOWEVER...the weekly does look like it's trying to roll......macd cross, RSI has moved below the 70 plane and the 34CCI has broken the 100 plane. What has to be taken out on a weekly closing basis is first the 8ema and then the top of the channel/wedge at approx 1394. A weekly close below 1394 area should get us 1350 fairly quickly...... a full test of last years may high could be in the cards.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1999-01-01&i=p14175576400&a=57601821&r=6875.png



eminimee,

I think the test of May 05 highs will come from higher levels. System is thick with shorts. They will get cleaned before any significant correction.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV