36 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Sorry, but I think you missed the point about digital convergence, regardless of AAPL or who does it...

Less overall units, less displays, less chips, etc. etc. etc

And the impact of that on today's electronics industry. That means less engineers, not more, less chips not more, shrinking revenues, margins and profits. Instead this turned into an Apple commercial. And I bet you don't remember the Osborne...

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 January 2007 - 05:21 PM.

[traderpaul]

What is the big deal about the touch screen?....Voice dialing....My programmed call number works just as good.....

[SemiBizz]

Vaporware, where's the beef? You are missing the point completely. This product is UNAVAILABLE. All he's doing is delaying demand for himself and his competitors... You sound like an ad for Apple. Can't you see he's going to cause IPOD sales to tumble until that product gets released?

Maybe it causes IPOD demand to drop. Some of those potential buyers just want IPOD, not the phone. On the other hand, there are some who may be about to buy phones, who will delay because they can get this phone with the other devices later. Whatever short term problem it creates for Apple, will get resolved down the road in my opinion. You lose a little now, but you pick up even more later.

IT

iPod has few competion.....Not cell-phones.....Six month is long enough for other company to bring out a better product than what he showed us.....

Exactly, it's not like QCOM, NOK and MOT are going to be standing still. And the Asian manufacturers are just waiting for someone here to establish a product definition and then they will be ALL OVER IT.

[securelstmile]

Sorry, but I think you missed the point about digital convergence, regardless of AAPL or who does it...

Less overall units, less displays, less chips, etc. etc. etc

And the impact of that on today's electronics industry. That means less engineers, not more, less chips not more, shrinking revenues, margins and profits. Instead this turned into an Apple commercial. And I bet you don't remember the Osborne...

I think longer term innovation from all of these companies (because apple lit a fire under em) will lead to more chips, more jobs etc.

That was my initial point about the importance of innovation in the tech world. It is sad to see so much stale tech. It does no one any good.

[SemiBizz]

Sorry, but I think you missed the point about digital convergence, regardless of AAPL or who does it...

Less overall units, less displays, less chips, etc. etc. etc

And the impact of that on today's electronics industry. That means less engineers, not more, less chips not more, shrinking revenues, margins and profits. Instead this turned into an Apple commercial. And I bet you don't remember the Osborne...

I think longer term innovation from all of these companies (because apple lit a fire under em) will lead to more chips, more jobs etc.

That was my initial point about the importance of innovation in the tech world. It is sad to see so much stale tech. It does no one any good.

Well let's see if I have 5 separate.devices now, pager, PDA, cellphone, camera, audio devices like IPOD and I converge them into 1 do I have less semiconductors or more? Do I have more hardware and software engineers or less?

Apple has a fine record of innovation with no follow-through to market share capture...

Starting with the McIntosh, icon oriented operating system, MSFT was behind them but shipped 100s of times the Apple Volume in windows software. Wherefore art thou Newton? They pioneered PDAs and dropped the ball leaving others like Palm to capture the bulk of the revenues. Now they are in a cut-throat established cellular market, head to head with much bigger companies. I'll give this product 5 years or less. The only reason IPOD was so successful was because there was a stale market that refused to address IP audio content. That's not the case with cellphones. If you don't have to have a product available to make such an announcement then don't be surprised when March rolls around and a bunch of handset companies introduce competing products at CeBit in Hannover, Germany.

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 January 2007 - 06:15 PM.

[Jnavin]

Best "Forum Topic" title I've ever seen, Semi. Funny.

[securelstmile]

Sorry, but I think you missed the point about digital convergence, regardless of AAPL or who does it...

Less overall units, less displays, less chips, etc. etc. etc

And the impact of that on today's electronics industry. That means less engineers, not more, less chips not more, shrinking revenues, margins and profits. Instead this turned into an Apple commercial. And I bet you don't remember the Osborne...

I think longer term innovation from all of these companies (because apple lit a fire under em) will lead to more chips, more jobs etc.

That was my initial point about the importance of innovation in the tech world. It is sad to see so much stale tech. It does no one any good.

Well let's see if I have 5 separate.devices now, pager, PDA, cellphone, camera, audio devices like IPOD and I converge them into 1 do I have less semiconductors or more? Do I have more hardware and software engineers or less?

Apple has a fine record of innovation with no follow-through to market share capture...

Starting with the McIntosh, icon oriented operating system, MSFT was behind them but shipped 100s of times the Apple Volume in windows software. Wherefore art thou Newton? They pioneered PDAs and dropped the ball leaving others like Palm to capture the bulk of the revenues. Now they are in a cut-throat established cellular market, head to head with much bigger companies. I'll give this product 5 years or less. The only reason IPOD was so successful was because there was a stale market that refused to address IP audio content. That's not the case with cellphones. If you don't have to have a product available to make such an announcement then don't be surprised when March rolls around and a bunch of handset companies introduce competing products at CeBit in Hannover, Germany.

Imagine if some thought the advent of the PC would destroy jobs for engineers. The calculator, filing cabinet, and typewriter all converged. It did take out jobs for some secretarys and clerical workers etc.. It lead to new doors openning as will happen with innovation.

Longer term it lead to more productivity and more jobs for those who could innovate and adapt. Convergence isn't new.
The ces was a big yawn, apple is the only company anyone is talking about. I would love to see innovation coming from many companies. That is today's reality.

[Rogerdodger]

I was trying to take a picture of my house with my new cell phone and accidentially made a long distance call to google and got a picture of my roof from outerspace. Oh well I've got some DVDs to rewind.

[SemiBizz]

You know this is very simple. You don't have to have a PhD in Electrical Engineering (although we have some on the board) to understand this. You are confusing NEW innovations with combining EXISTING products into a single one. For example each of those products I described has it's own: 1 processor 2 memory 3 peripherals 4 power supplies 5 I/O and buffers 6 operating system software code. 7 RF where applicable 8 digital logic Don't you get it? instead of 5 products with all those devices, there's ONE. That means 4 less PC boards, 4 less packages, 4 less assembly lines? You are confusing a new technology with one that replaces multiple products. We are not going to need MORE engineers, we'll need LESS. The expanded bill of materials will be cut by 20% or more due to additional VLSI advances that allow integration of multiple chips into single chips. , and the ASP's of those 5 products combined will be a lot more than the converged product of the future. Furthermore, this is not just the future of mobile devices. All your FIXED internet/video/audio/telephony content is going to come in over single networks. Let's just look at video display... So instead of having NTSC/PAL on your TV, or SVGA, XGA or any number of graphics and screen drivers on your computer monitor, there will be ONE set of drivers.. What are we going to see is not dedicated PC monitors or TVs, but just plain monitors. We won't need 100 teams of different engineers to support all those protocols, such as is the case today. The electronics industry is going to converge, consolidate and SHRINK...

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 January 2007 - 08:23 PM.

[securelstmile]

I think what I am trying to say is.. It doesn't matter how many products you have if consumers are not interesting enough to get off their couches and into best buy to buy them. Back in the days when there was alot of innovation going on there was alot of jobs and chip makers were doing well. Apple did not invent convegence it has been going on since the beginning. It is not all that it is cracked up to be we are still buying cameras despite the fact that they are on our phones. When we start to see people getting excited about tech we will see a boom in tech. Computers have become like refrigerators you buy them because you need them. This device is not a refrigerator. I hope we see more non refrigerators from all the other companies out there. I hope they hire really bright engneers to design the new non refrigerators. This could be the beginning of something that breeds new devices that you and I haven't even thought of yet. Maybe we should spend our good energy thinking of something rather than going around this circle.