Dicey times
#1
Posted 10 January 2007 - 05:33 PM
#2
Posted 10 January 2007 - 06:17 PM
It has been the great amount of liquidity in the system that has prevented the kind of volatility that many have been looking for over the last 4 years. Until this high amount of capital is drained to more historical "normal" levels, I wouldn't expect any increase in the kind of volatility you saw, with respect to the US markets, in the late 90's and early 00's for a while.I do expect volatility to increase substantially over the next year.
This is one of the areas in which, yes, it is different this time.
Nice to see you posting again NB...hope all is well on your end.
Fib
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#3
Posted 10 January 2007 - 11:17 PM
crashing crude is the result of a strong world wide economy.....all those that need money and only have crude pump more and more....itsa flood....snort.....where do u thing the dubai expansion money will come from....or the rebuilding of iraq...or the financing of the old soviet union into the new order....all they got is black gold....With oil still going down, it could be good for the economy. However, does it signal an economic slowdown ? Along with other commodities dropping off, it might be. Plus housing slow down. The market is going up tentatively.
I do expect volitility to increase substantially over the next year. China may slow its building binge once the Olympics are over.
I'm neutral on the market. Cash might be good for the year. I do think the Fed stuck a fork in it. Now they are stuck.