11 replies to this topic

[no_mind]

Looks like it wants to head south for the winter.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USB&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=t30642957176&r=9810.png

[U.F.O.]

Hi NM. Bonds I do follow daily. Watch out for a monstrous head w/multiple shoulders top here, which means whipsaw city. I, also, see higher rates.....but not without pain for aggressive early short sellers. Best. U.F.O.

[Rogerdodger]

$UTIL is in the same boat.
They are above the Oct highs whereas $USB is well below.
Makes me wonder why.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UTIL&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p41261564129&r=6302.png

[U.F.O.]

A rounding error? Point being...both are well off the rally highs, just a matter of degree. Beware the "snapback" rally in this downmove. It's a killer for the IT swing traders. U.F.O.

[U.F.O.]

10yr T-Note, also, annihilates the major uptrend line. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

[da_cheif]

crash them bonds....im staying short....once that 105 gets blown out mar tbonds shud plummett....thru par like a hot nife thru butta....snort

[dcengr]

crash them bonds....im staying short....once that 105 gets blown out mar tbonds shud plummett....thru par like a hot nife thru butta....snort

I still don't get how you reconcile the fact that if rates rise, thats negative for companies, not to mention the masses in mortgage debt.

Rising rates = cheap bonds = less cash for companies to borrow.

Rising rates = higher payments = less cash for consumers.

Or am I doing brain surgery when I should be digging ditches?

[greenie]

Crash post. Awesome !!!!!! Just like your post right at April bond bottom. This is exactly the time I was looking for. Seems like dumb money is leaving bonds - gotta back up the truck and load up. dcengr, do not argue with the markets. Just close your eye and go long or short based on price action

[pdx5]

RogerD-- USB's are affected mainly by interest rates. Whereas Utilities are also affected by fuel prices and also have some dividend increases. But it has to be drop in natural gas & oil prices is why ute's are holding up better than bonds. Coal prices also have a tendency to follow oil & gas.

[no_mind]

UFO, So good to see you again and thank you so much for your input on the bond. I don't short the bond, I only go long at times using TLT. By a stroke of luck I sold all of my position on 12/05 and have seen no reason to get back in but continue to watch the bond like a hawk. Time will tell the tale. Best, Tom