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Home sellers Find the data doesn't reflect their woes


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#1 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 08:02 AM

http://money.cnn.com...sion=2007011118

#2 eminimee

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 09:09 AM

Housing index WILL hit 175 sometime in the next 6 months....would have to get above that neckline to convince me housing has got some type of bottom in........once below the 40ema we should motor downwards.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HGX&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p35086960010&a=91715896&r=694.png

#3 securelstmile

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 09:51 AM

I have a good friend who is in charge of my state for a major real estate company (mostly corporate not housing) and he told me recently, real estate is toast by 2010. He has always been correct in the past. He has been in the business for over 20 years.
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#4 fib_1618

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 02:59 PM

So......all of the constant pounding from the pundits of how bad things "really are" are not reflective in the actual verifiable numbers?

Go figure.

I have a good friend who is in charge of my state for a major real estate company (mostly corporate not housing) and he told me recently, real estate is toast by 2010.

He has always been correct in the past. He has been in the business for over 20 years.

Has he drawn up his resume? ;)

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#5 securelstmile

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 03:05 PM

I told him that being the boss they will always need him around to fire people. Another friend was there in banking who has called every market cycle I can remember. He concurred. This isn't tomorrow, but 2010 and it is real estate not stocks. I think they are seperate cycles as we have seen as real estate did well while the market cratered in the early part of this decade/century.
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#6 fib_1618

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 03:14 PM

Another friend was there in banking who has called every market cycle I can remember. He concurred.

Any particular reason(s)? After all, shelter is not in the same category of, let's say, semiconductors.

Also, what degree of "toast" are we talking about? (I like mine "slightly" :) )

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#7 securelstmile

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 08:54 AM

Another friend was there in banking who has called every market cycle I can remember. He concurred.

Any particular reason(s)? After all, shelter is not in the same category of, let's say, semiconductors.

Also, what degree of "toast" are we talking about? (I like mine "slightly" :) )

Fib



I got the impression burnt toast. You have to understand I have never seen this guy negative about real estate. My banking friend called the 2003 lows in stocks but was negative in 2000 he is in charge of private client groups for a large bank.

And I agree this isn't semis but real estate. They are different cycles.
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#8 fib_1618

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 04:28 PM

I got the impression burnt toast. You have to understand I have never seen this guy negative about real estate.

I just find it odd when anyone who has the experience that your friends have in this, or any other field, in why they aren't preparing some sort of exit strategy well before the rest of us find out which side this "toast" is actually buttered. In Manhattan, for example, real estate prices are more than firm, and may be due for some sort of normal correction, but "burnt toast"?

Maybe it's all the constant negative talk from many of the pundits that are convincing these same people, on an emotional basis, from being objective in their own personal forecasts? This can happen to the best of us. Just a thought.

I for one would be interested in why their thought process are this negative. Maybe this is something you can ask them directly some time and make a post on it as to what an "insider" believes the problems are that would cause such a forecast, and to what markets these same forecasts are based on? Getting this kind of fundamental input, in relation to the actual technical conditions of those same markets, can present a wealth of information not found in any type of media.

Best
Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#9 stocks

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 05:08 PM

I got the impression burnt toast. You have to understand I have never seen this guy negative about real estate.

I just find it odd when anyone who has the experience that your friends have in this, or any other field, in why they aren't preparing some sort of exit strategy well before the rest of us find out which side this "toast" is actually buttered. In Manhattan, for example, real estate prices are more than firm, and may be due for some sort of normal correction, but "burnt toast"?

Maybe it's all the constant negative talk from many of the pundits that are convincing these same people, on an emotional basis, from being objective in their own personal forecasts? This can happen to the best of us. Just a thought.

I for one would be interested in why their thought process are this negative. Maybe this is something you can ask them directly some time and make a post on it as to what an "insider" believes the problems are that would cause such a forecast, and to what markets these same forecasts are based on? Getting this kind of fundamental input, in relation to the actual technical conditions of those same markets, can present a wealth of information not found in any type of media.

Best
Fib


Fib,
Is this what you're looking for:

http://www.traders-t...?...88&hl=prime
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#10 securelstmile

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 05:19 PM

Fib, They did discuss it being related to private equity bidding up prices. I will get more details when I see them hopefully in the next couple of weeks.
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