14 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Originally posted by dcengr, but I thought I'd put it up as a clean chart. BTW, I look at the poll data differently, but this is an interesting approach.

[dcengr]

You know how I construct that? I basically add the bull% from opinion polls and position polls. Then divide that with similar from bears. Then I take the 5MA of it. Therefore, the ratio takes into account both opinion and position polls.

[mdwllc]

OEXChaos: So how do you look at the data? Mike

[OEXCHAOS]

I look at the actual position poll separately from the opinion poll. The FF tend to get the direction right when they guess--at least more often than not. The actual position poll tells us a lot about the conviction levels of traders. I don't combine the two measures. Mark

[fib_1618]

Originally posted by dcengr

Are you sure it was "originally" posted by dcengr?

You know how I construct that? I basically add the bull% from opinion polls and position polls. Then divide that with similar from bears. Then I take the 5MA of it.

Are you sure that you constructed the data in its current form? Seems to me that the only difference is that you decided to use the QQQQ as a proxy instead of the originators used comparison of the SPX?

Maybe a clarification is warranted on the difference?

Fib

[dcengr]

Originally posted by dcengr

Are you sure it was "originally" posted by dcengr?

You know how I construct that? I basically add the bull% from opinion polls and position polls. Then divide that with similar from bears. Then I take the 5MA of it.

Are you sure that you constructed the data in its current form? Seems to me that the only difference is that you decided to use the QQQQ as a proxy instead of the originators used comparison of the SPX?

Maybe a clarification is warranted on the difference?

Fib

I believe that's my original construct. The chart looks familiar because the original data was provided by Mortiz. But he did not construct the data the way I did (since I have his original excel file, I should know!).

So yes, thanks to Randy for providing me the data . But what I'm doing was not part of his spreadsheet.

To further clarify, if you will read how I constructed the data, it should be clear. As far as I know, Randy's work was separated into opinion and position polls (thats what I saw anyways).

I also noticed that sentiment is much more geared towards Qs than SPX.

Edited by dcengr, 12 January 2007 - 05:07 PM.

[Rich]

Mark, It's a little hard to see the correlation between the price and ratio. Can you plot the 5-day forward slope of the qqqq price vs the bull/bear ratio? This would be just points corresponding to the day values. If you can't do the slope, the difference between two EMAs of the price might work. I would try 5- and 10-day EMAs. Thanks, Rich

Edited by Rich, 13 January 2007 - 11:07 AM.

[dcengr]

Mark,

It's a little hard to see the correlation between the price and ratio.

Can you plot the 5-day forward slope of the qqqq price vs the bull/bear ratio? This would be just points corresponding to the day values. If you can't do the slope, the difference between two EMAs of the price might work. I would try 5- and 10-day EMAs.

Thanks,
Rich

I've been meaning to look at the polls like MCO/MSUM... What would be nice is if in that file library that Mark may make, we can contribute excel files of data such as this.

[OEXCHAOS]

Heck yeah. Send me what you have and I or GD will create an upload area for them. I think that patrons can upload excel files now, but I'm not entirely sure. If anyone has any security suggestions, let me know. Send to admin here at traders-talk.com

[U.F.O.]

I like it. It seems pretty obvious we're in "buy" territory right now. One would sell the bullish spikes. Mark, is there a possibility you could keep posting this on a daily basis. Maybe make it a "sticky" thread in it's current position at the top of the FF board? U.F.O.