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Kisacik's FF of an IT top in mid February


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#1 pdx5

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 05:19 PM

The 401-k contributions rolling in plus year end bonuses will keep this market climbing higher thru February. However I will out of my partial long position if SPX hits 1450 before that.

Edited by pdx5, 12 January 2007 - 05:21 PM.

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#2 fib_1618

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 05:49 PM

The NYSE breadth MCSUM suggested back in November that we'll probably see a price peak sometime in late March or early April. That could extend all depending on how we rally on the next advance. We'll just have to see how things go. Fib

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#3 dcengr

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 05:59 PM

The NYSE breadth MCSUM suggested back in November that we'll probably see a price peak sometime in late March or early April. That could extend all depending on how we rally on the next advance. We'll just have to see how things go.

Fib


I know you mentioned this before.. that MCO/MCSUM can do price projections. Looks like it can also do time projections.

I'd be interested in knowing how this was done, if you could spend some time explaining, or pointing in the right direction.

Thanks
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#4 fib_1618

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:15 PM

I'd be interested in knowing how this was done, if you could spend some time explaining, or pointing in the right direction.

This one of the many complexities of this "simple" forecasting tool provides, and it would take quite a while for me to explain it in such a way that would make good analytical sense without turning it into a lengthy dissertation.

But fortunately, we do cover this and many other nuances that comes with the McClellan data in the chat sessions. Another idea would be to review the cumulative archives in the April to October 2004 period where I provide this kind of analysis.

Fib

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#5 pdx5

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:17 PM

I will 2nd DCE on the time factor. There are lots of FF's for price on this board but very few tie "time" into it. For example we all know DJI will be at 25,000. But without saying "when" it is a hollow and meaningless forecast.
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#6 dcengr

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:22 PM

I'd be interested in knowing how this was done, if you could spend some time explaining, or pointing in the right direction.

This one of the many complexities of this "simple" forecasting tool provides, and it would take quite a while for me to explain it in such a way that would make good analytical sense without turning it into a lengthy dissertation.

But fortunately, we do cover this and many other nuances that comes with the McClellan data in the chat sessions. Another idea would be to review the cumulative archives in the April to October 2004 period where I provide this kind of analysis.

Fib


Thanks, will look into it.
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#7 eminimee

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:34 PM

I'm looking for the turn first week of Feb. for what it's worth...target 1350 spx....with 1325 possible......if 1325 is hit.....and reverses up....could be the start of a 5th wave of a very large ED.

#8 arbman

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 06:54 PM

pdx, thanks for noticing my humble FF :)

The NYSE breadth MCSUM suggested back in November that we'll probably see a price peak sometime in late March or early April. That could extend all depending on how we rally on the next advance. We'll just have to see how things go.

Fib


Fib, I think the cycle lows are due at that time, so I am not sure the indices should float that far, there are enough IT signs that one can expect a top by March or in Feb. I expect the Jan to be up, because I expect the year to be up... :lol:

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#9 fib_1618

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Posted 12 January 2007 - 07:13 PM

Fib, I think the cycle lows are due at that time...

Yes, according to the blueprint of the 9 month cycle, the next nesting is due the end of April. But with liquidity as high as it is, and the four year cycle continuing its upward arch, this same nesting could present us with only a quick and scary decline (a bottom in which we decline into) - or what may be more plausible - another trading range type formation (a bottom in which we rally up from).

Still, there's a lot of time between now and then to digest, so it would be better to take it day to day and let the market tell us its true intentions.

Fib

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