Since its May high the CRB commodity index has dropped 22%, only the 7th time this has happened since 1974. According to ISI, since 1974 every decline in the index of 20% or more has been associated with either a recession, a significant slowdown or a financial crisis. Each of these periods has also occurred following a period of tight money and an inverted yield curve. In this regard it is also noteworthy that oil has not been the only commodity declining in price. Recent months have featured significant declines in a wide assortment of commodities such as copper, gold, sugar, hogs, wheat and corn. It is therefore likely that the oil price decline is itself a result of economic softening rather than an impetus to growth.
http://www.comstockf...;menugroup=Home
Meanwhile, the ECRI index keeps truckin:
ECRI weekly leading indicator growth starting from 9/29
-.6
-1.0
-.5
-.1
-.1
+.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.5
+1.8
+2.8
+3.4
+3.8
+3.7
+4.0
http://www.businesscycle.com/
ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret this data to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast which is available by subscription.
As The Economist magazine recently noted, "ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."
22% Drop in CRB
Started by
stocks
, Jan 13 2007 11:26 AM
1 reply to this topic
#1
Posted 13 January 2007 - 11:26 AM
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Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#2
Posted 14 January 2007 - 02:58 PM
Andy House, Texas Man, Accidentally Drives 2006 Bugatti Veyron Into Salt Marsh
http://www.zimbio.co...Veyron Crashing
http://www.zimbio.co...Veyron Crashing