What makes Wolanchuk's 10-year performance so incredible? Market timers, he says, tend to overplay their bearish hands. "I learned early on that to be king of the market timers, you just had to be bullish as hell," he says. And it has worked (at least in the abstract: Wolanchuk's performance is based on his market calls; he has never managed a fund). Based on his telephone service, at the end of last year, Timer Digest ranked him the best market timer for 1997. He also won the award for best timer for the past eight-year, five-year, three-year, and two-year periods.
Wolanchuk doesn't see the market turning down again soon. "I think the Dow can hit 16,000 in the next couple of months," he says. It's that type of prediction that can make even loyal Wolanchuk followers shake their heads. But consider this: in 1989, when the Dow was near 2700, Wolanchuk predicted the 1990s would end over 10,000. Earlier this year it flirted with 9400, and there's still 12 months to go.
Geeze cheif.. you been calling 16,000 since 1997?
Started by
dcengr
, Jan 13 2007 05:15 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
dcengr
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Posted 13 January 2007 - 05:15 PM
I was just looking over this stuff... did you ever see 1998 coming?
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#2
Data
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Posted 13 January 2007 - 05:49 PM
That prediction of 16,000 within 1 year has been out there for at least 10-15 years.
I heard it on the radio back in 1994.
#3
fib_1618
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Posted 13 January 2007 - 07:25 PM
That may be, but this time, this kind of projection now has the internals to easily back up such forecasts.That prediction of 16,000 within 1 year has been out there for at least 10-15 years.
Fib
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#4
Vector
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Posted 13 January 2007 - 09:22 PM
persistent DISCIPLINED bulls like da_cheif usually *do* see it coming but its not worth worrying about getting out beforehand since those pullbacks are never ever permanent and 9 out of 10 times you wind up getting bearish way too soon and crushed over and over again or get short but overstay the welcome and get crushed on the recovery. that's the point he is trying to make. most don't get it. ironic but most play it the other way around and the very thing that they try to avoid is what causes them even worse pain, grief and misery.
everyday I walk to work and don't worry about getting hit by a car or else I'd never go to work- there's no choice - I have to take my lumps - like it or not 
you not only have to prep for the next turn but remember not to forget to prep for the next next turn. in a bull that next next turn is a bottom to buy and the only way to get yourself to buy it is to practically ignore or forego the next turn
its a real psych game. no it doesn't make sense and its not really intuitive b/c if it were everybody would be making money doing it and we know that that can't happen
you not only have to prep for the next turn but remember not to forget to prep for the next next turn. in a bull that next next turn is a bottom to buy and the only way to get yourself to buy it is to practically ignore or forego the next turn
its a real psych game. no it doesn't make sense and its not really intuitive b/c if it were everybody would be making money doing it and we know that that can't happen
Edited by Vector, 13 January 2007 - 09:30 PM.
#5
Vector
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Posted 13 January 2007 - 09:39 PM
most of the time we "perma-bulls" do see it coming we just choose not to "play it" b/c we know better ...
Just b/c we didn't "play it" doesn't mean we didn't sense or see it coming. 
Edited by Vector, 13 January 2007 - 09:40 PM.
#6
da_cheif
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Posted 13 January 2007 - 11:14 PM
[quote name='Vector' date='Jan 13 2007, 09:39 PM' post='265939']
most of the time we "perma-bulls" do see it coming we just choose not to "play it" b/c we know better ...
Just b/c we didn't "play it" doesn't mean we didn't sense or see it coming.
[/quote
98 was a pimple on an elephants [bleeep].......
[quote name='dcengr' post='265896' date='Jan 13 2007, 05:15 PM']
I was just looking over this stuff... did you ever see 1998 coming?
[quote]What makes Wolanchuk's 10-year performance so incredible? Market timers, he says, tend to overplay their bearish hands. "I learned early on that to be king of the market timers, you just had to be bullish as hell," he says. And it has worked (at least in the abstract: Wolanchuk's performance is based on his market calls; he has never managed a fund). Based on his telephone service, at the end of last year, Timer Digest ranked him the best market timer for 1997. He also won the award for best timer for the past eight-year, five-year, three-year, and two-year periods.
Wolanchuk doesn't see the market turning down again soon. "I think the Dow can hit 16,000 in the next couple of months," he says. It's that type of prediction that can make even loyal Wolanchuk followers shake their heads. But consider this: in 1989, when the Dow was near 2700, Wolanchuk predicted the 1990s would end over 10,000. Earlier this year it flirted with 9400, and there's still 12 months to go.[/quote]
[/quote]
didnt i see 1998 coming....lol...it was a four year cycle wasnt it.....and in 99 another interview we talked about the uglinsess of the 2002 4 year cycle low that was coming..in fact the title of the interview by stockhouse was...."the coming crash"
most of the time we "perma-bulls" do see it coming we just choose not to "play it" b/c we know better ...
Just b/c we didn't "play it" doesn't mean we didn't sense or see it coming.
[/quote
98 was a pimple on an elephants [bleeep].......
[quote name='dcengr' post='265896' date='Jan 13 2007, 05:15 PM']
I was just looking over this stuff... did you ever see 1998 coming?
[quote]What makes Wolanchuk's 10-year performance so incredible? Market timers, he says, tend to overplay their bearish hands. "I learned early on that to be king of the market timers, you just had to be bullish as hell," he says. And it has worked (at least in the abstract: Wolanchuk's performance is based on his market calls; he has never managed a fund). Based on his telephone service, at the end of last year, Timer Digest ranked him the best market timer for 1997. He also won the award for best timer for the past eight-year, five-year, three-year, and two-year periods.
Wolanchuk doesn't see the market turning down again soon. "I think the Dow can hit 16,000 in the next couple of months," he says. It's that type of prediction that can make even loyal Wolanchuk followers shake their heads. But consider this: in 1989, when the Dow was near 2700, Wolanchuk predicted the 1990s would end over 10,000. Earlier this year it flirted with 9400, and there's still 12 months to go.[/quote]
[/quote]
didnt i see 1998 coming....lol...it was a four year cycle wasnt it.....and in 99 another interview we talked about the uglinsess of the 2002 4 year cycle low that was coming..in fact the title of the interview by stockhouse was...."the coming crash"
#7
LarryT
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Posted 19 June 2009 - 07:26 AM
Look, I have given you kudos for calling the 2003 bottom and you called this bottom, you are the best bottom picker alive, I gave you that. I also called the 1996 and 1998 bottoms, had 1620 for the 2000 high off the 1998 bottom. All I have ever asked of you is to stop beating up on everybody that has a different opinion and you just keep it up. You never mention you missed the 2000 and 2007 tops. I have said many times I missed the 2003 bottom and you nailed it. Let it go, stop beating up on everybody, stop keeping files on them and just give your own opinion.
LT
