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If friday was the 5th of the 5th of the 5th


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#1 dcengr

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 07:16 PM

And I got to short it at the top tick.

Note EM's count of Qs on the bull market scale, which would put us at final 5th leg, and on this 5th leg, this final multiday spurge would be the 5th wave, and this hourly chart with a count plopped on top.

That would make my short at Qs 45.33 the 5th of bull market, of 5th of last leg, of 5th of hourly.

And just my luck I'll probably get scorched come tuesday.

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#2 fib_1618

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 07:20 PM

If Friday was the 5th of the 5th of the 5th

But it's not...so relax.

Fib

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#3 dcengr

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 07:28 PM

If Friday was the 5th of the 5th of the 5th

But it's not...so relax.

Fib


If its not, then I can't relax :cry:

Btw, I think your count is that we're in wave 3 of this bull market cycle, correct? So bulk of the gains are still to come?

Edited by dcengr, 13 January 2007 - 07:35 PM.

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#4 dcengr

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 07:49 PM

I'm still going through my elliott book, and I'm no EWist.

But this is a quote from the book:

Third waves are wodners to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakeable. Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movements and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, ofcourse, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts, breakdowns, runaway gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, thrust, major dow theory trend confirmations and large hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly moves in the market, depending on the degree of the wave. Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. Besides the personality of B waves, that of third waves producs the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds.


Now I'm a noob at this, but..

The points I highlighted.. can one who thinks this leg is a third wave explain this to me?

1. Are fundamentals improving? Most think economy is slowing now. People are expecting SOFT LANDING, not raging expansion.

2. There's no exceptional breadth in Nasdaq.. quite contrary.

3. Dow theory says transports should be making new highs.. not.

4. Not all stocks seem to be participating, especially semis and small/mid caps.
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#5 CLK

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 08:31 PM

This market is no where near the end, we are years away at this point. But...a 98 style drop or 10% could happen but would be fully recovered in a few months. I have to believe based upon the vix alone, that a new bear can't develop from a low VIX. Even though the data only goes back to 1990 I still belive in it. That said, Armstrong's top is due on 2-27, so some kind of chop or drop should transpire from that, but the danger of a melt up or just continued grind higher is very high. Seems as though the big money has been made and probably will continue in the individual stocks and sectors as the indexes just creep up. All I'm interested in as far as the indexes is scalping the hourly swings, I can't time a multi-week move in them.

#6 dcengr

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 08:38 PM

This market is no where near the end, we are years away at this point.

But...a 98 style drop or 10% could happen but would be fully recovered in a few months.

I have to believe based upon the vix alone, that a new bear can't develop from
a low VIX. Even though the data only goes back to 1990 I still belive in it.

That said, Armstrong's top is due on 2-27, so some kind of chop or drop
should transpire from that, but the danger of a melt up or just continued
grind higher is very high.

Seems as though the big money has been made and probably will continue
in the individual stocks and sectors as the indexes just creep up.
All I'm interested in as far as the indexes is scalping the hourly swings,
I can't time a multi-week move in them.


Still going through this elliott book, it says 5th waves are fib ratios of start of wave 1 to end of wave 3. Now realize that wave 1 high, if we use EM's count, would span about 1800 dow points.

The height of start of wave 1 to top of wave 2 is about 3600 dow points (or about 2x). If wave 5 = wave 1, which is 1/2 of distance from start of wave 1 to top of wave 3, then that ratio would also work out, and would put the top around dow 12,500.

If we're to go 1.618 ratio of 3600, then that means around dow 12,800. So go figure.

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#7 dcengr

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Posted 13 January 2007 - 09:31 PM

Actually on Qs.. if 1 = 5, then we gotta go up $10.. so $45.50 would be top. Probably gap up monday.
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