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Responding to 5th of a 5th of a 5th Thread


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#21 dcengr

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Posted 15 January 2007 - 06:52 PM

Let's stir the pot a bit...I've added both the political administration in office and the key wars fought by the US during this same longer term time period to help in understanding the social shifts that occurred in relation to the price pattern.

Fib

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Vietnam war for 6 years.. maybe war on terror is better than gulf war? Thats about 6 years now.

One other social mood interest that I think you may find fascinating is the resurrection of interest in "super heroes". The 60s was where this industry had its renaissance, and it appears to have resurfaced with a vengeance in a host of movies coming out and TV shows.

I would also contrast the recent "immigration reform movement" to the 60ties "civil rights" movement.
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#22 fib_1618

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Posted 15 January 2007 - 08:00 PM

Let's stir the pot a bit...I've added both the political administration in office and the key wars fought by the US during this same longer term time period to help in understanding the social shifts that occurred in relation to the price pattern.

Fib

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Vietnam war for 6 years.. maybe war on terror is better than gulf war? Thats about 6 years now.

One other social mood interest that I think you may find fascinating is the resurrection of interest in "super heroes". The 60s was where this industry had its renaissance, and it appears to have resurfaced with a vengeance in a host of movies coming out and TV shows.

I would also contrast the recent "immigration reform movement" to the 60ties "civil rights" movement.

Now we're getting somewhere.

More to the point, you had comic books and serials during the 1930's and comic book movies in the 1980's (with a recent resurgence as you've noted over the last 4 years). You also had "monster movies" during the early 30's and during times in which the markets had just bottomed during this same longer term time span (the current period as an example). And let's not forget the interest in space entertainment during various bull market advances...from the "B" movies of the 1950's, to the Star Trek series of television shows in the late 1960's, the 1980's, and through out the 1990's!

In other areas, you had Frank Sinatra in the 30's, Elvis Presley in the 50's, and Michael Jackson in the 80's in which woman "swooned" over. You had types of music that became more mainstream "pop" over the years at various market tops...Big Bands in the late 30's, the British Invasion of the 1960's (which included The Beatles), and currently Hip Hop. On the other side of the coin, you had hard, off key music during correctional periods - the Blues and Jazz in the 1940's, Heavy Metal in the early 1970's, Grunge in the early 90's, and Gangsta Rap in the late 80's and early 2000's.

Fashion wise, you had long womens skirt lengths during hard times (the 1930's) which turned into complete coverage with pants (jeans) in the 1970's, and fair amount of skin shown during times in which the mood was perceived as "favorable" (the late 20's, the late 60's, the mid 80's, and the late 90's). Also include the colors that are worn over the span of the chart...darks during times in which the mood is sour, and bright, light colors during times of contentment.

Tip of the iceberg really as there are many other mood indicators as well that work with any or all wave pattern structures, but hopefully this will add fuel to the fire already started.

Fib

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#23 dcengr

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Posted 15 January 2007 - 08:23 PM

Tip of the iceberg really as there are many other mood indicators as well that work with any or all wave pattern structures, but hopefully this will add fuel to the fire already started.

Fib


I don't think there's much debate against us still being in a bull market, but the debate rest mostly in wave 3 or wave 5.

if we're in wave 5, technically thats still a bull market, but we should see euphoria in social mood maybe starting to get extreme.

I know we've mentioned britney's undies (or lack of) before, and just the other day, I read about the russian business guy holding orgies with prostitutes being arrested.

Now whats more interesting is not the fact these things happened, but that the reaction to them seemed negative (at least to me). People have gone on air saying britney was bad.. this russian guy was arrested and being prosecuted..

We got so many comic book movies coming out.. I think this summer there's like 4-5 based on them coming out at once.

And at the same time we're seeing signs of social disorder. There's problems in venezuela, in mexico, even a revolution in thailand.. plus as mentioned before, the growing dissatisfaction with the war and immigration.

So it would appear to me that socially, maybe there are signs of things reaching an extreme and signs of turning at the same time.

Another example would be the negative reaction to the bonuses made by wall street firms. They've made tons the last few years, but this particular year, there appears to be quite a bit of negative attention to it.. which is spilling also into CEO pay.

The democrats are talking about corruption reform.. plus the fact we got democrats in the house after so many years of republican rule. There's growing dissatisfaction.

Now to be a wave 3, we would expect this to be the longest of the 3 waves, maybe in time as well as price. But if it is a wave 3, then wave 5 is yet to come, and that may mean another year of bull market. Certainly doable, but have we hit a euphoria peak now and its starting to turn?
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