Jump to content



Photo

Counts on various indices


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 14 January 2007 - 08:50 AM

I've got a long haul bullish count on these....the key index and price I'll be watching on the downside is OEX 615 area....if that breaks down....deeper...hold...and bullish. Also very keen on the possibility of SPX being in a very big ED.....with the 1325 area needed for overlap. I'd be watching those two numbers for a total market reversal more than anything else......that's if we even get there. :) If we close above 675 OEX on a weekly basis....we are going higher but I don't think we get through there.....some more bearish alternatives on a few of these...comp,ndx dow....but not concerned at this point...let's see if an IT correction starts first...I believe it is.....posted some market internals yesterday. Fib....I'm borrowing a chart of yours posted at the bottom...hope you don't mind just showing a bit of divergence. No particular order in these charts....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&i=p66885111626&a=81894387&r=5790.png



http://stockcharts.c...5518&r=4050.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p39775933002&a=89306176&r=2021.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p98951218793&a=90699718&r=5416.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=2&dy=0&i=p42824761853&a=86095227&r=8761.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p34926924656&a=88876576&r=8844.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p70613901309&a=91088662&r=9682.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UTIL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p19088943522&a=88068608&r=6581.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=M&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p07517931850&a=71542656&r=6016.png

Posted Image

Edited by Teaparty, 14 January 2007 - 08:53 AM.


#2 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 14 January 2007 - 09:57 AM

2 more:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XBD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p98627875282&a=85988535&r=7571.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=D&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p86245137956&a=89765629&r=4369.png

#3 Net

Net

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 527 posts

Posted 14 January 2007 - 10:14 AM

Hi Teaparty, I look at EW rather simply, and from this perspective, I see a different count than what you have on your first chart with the $RUT. What's throwing me off, you have the 3rd wave labeled as the smallest wave, in your 5 wave count. So, I put the first wave in the fib calculator, to see what the projected high would be for the next wave (big 3). Using the 515 low and 656 high, the expanded target from the subsequent low of 570 works out to be about 797. This shows me that we are likely concluding big wave 3 now (570-801) as this resistance area is where the consolidation began last month. If you draw a horozontal line at that projected high (796.89) on your 3 year chart, it sure looks like the 3rd wave rally stopped nearly precisely at 1.618 times the move of wave one. So, to me, it looks like your "345AB" is "12345" of big 3, and now we're beginning 4. Also, "little 3" from 615 to 785 works well with this count, being bigger than little 1 and little 5. Again, it's just a simple look, and there may be some other EW rule in play that I don't remember (invalidating my count) so I'm just offering this up FWIW. If so, the most obvious confluence area of support (i.e., target) is 658.5, based on a 61.8% retracement of the move from 570 to 801 (calculated = 658.26) and the 50% retracement of the move from 516 to 801 (calculated 658.50, within 1/4 point of the 61.8 retrace of wave 3 on my count). That said, I'm looking much more simply at the pattern, and this view is what makes sense to me.. at least for the $RUT. Off to work now... Oh... haven't told you this before, but I've really enjoyed your analysis... ever since joining this board. Thanks a million for offering up so much to everyone.

Edited by Net, 14 January 2007 - 10:16 AM.


#4 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 14 January 2007 - 11:01 AM

thanks Net..you could very well be right ...RUT I was looking at an extended 5th of an ED but I must admit....it's the least favorite of those chart counts.

#5 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 14 January 2007 - 11:58 AM

While we are on 5's...this is what I'm seeing on daily spx....I've got a very strong opinion that spx tops when oex hits 670ish.....if it isn't triple topping at 666ish. How devilish!!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=26&i=p74812138046&a=90931516&r=8796.png

#6 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 14 January 2007 - 12:41 PM

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p24536827035&a=45223914&r=9193.png