3 replies to this topic

[VermeerUK]

Hi all, Although rates are 'likely' to rise in Japan this week,i'm not getting too excited about a possible trend-change in the currency anytime soon..(as charts never go up/down in a straight line,best i can hope for is some sort of 'correction' imvho)......Looks like a 0.25bp rise this week will be all we'll get for the first half of this year...(barring any shock/out of the blue rate-rises in the meantime of course) As for the charts.....I'm watching the GBP/Yen & Euro/Yen crosses (longterm/monthly 'line' charts). The GBP/Yen chart is right at a key resistance level at 236+ from 1998. The Euro/Yen has a bit further to go to reach the 160+ key chart level also from 1998. I'm still watching/waiting for an opening to 'buy' the Yen.......Further evidence of a global slowdown would help me i reckon...Probably means Japan would have to carry(pardon the pun) their load regarding their currency(let it rise against others)...imvho Regards.V

[Sentient Being]

Britian also raised rates, is seeing inflation.

[redfoliage2]

Hi all,

Although rates are 'likely' to rise in Japan this week,i'm not getting too excited about a possible trend-change in the currency anytime soon..(as charts never go up/down in a straight line,best i can hope for is some sort of 'correction' imvho)......Looks like a 0.25bp rise this week will be all we'll get for the first half of this year...(barring any shock/out of the blue rate-rises in the meantime of course)

As for the charts.....I'm watching the GBP/Yen & Euro/Yen crosses (longterm/monthly 'line' charts).

The GBP/Yen chart is right at a key resistance level at 236+ from 1998.

The Euro/Yen has a bit further to go to reach the 160+ key chart level also from 1998.

I'm still watching/waiting for an opening to 'buy' the Yen.......Further evidence of a global slowdown would help me i reckon...Probably means Japan would have to carry(pardon the pun) their load regarding their currency(let it rise against others)...imvho

Regards.V

It should indicate a trend chnage. It's difficult for Janpan to maintain a 0% rate while other central banks are raising rates.

[VermeerUK]

Sentiment Being, Yes saw that earlier. If you look at the old 'RPI' (retail price index) before our government/finacial overlord shysters pulled a fast one a few years back and changed to reading todays so-called 'CPI'(which is a more rose tinted/smoke& mirrors job)) which does in fact show inflation at the 3% level,you get a much different picture.....The old 'RPI' data as shown today shows inflation running much higher at 4.4%...(Hence the real bloody reason for last weeks shock rate-rise by the BOE).........I reckon they'd have been better going for a "shock" .50bp rise if they wanted to send 'the' definitive signal to consumer/housing markets in the UK......Because these .25bp's aint doing the job......Plus the 'union' comrades are starting to awaken from their long slumber and are getting restless over here.......As we all know to get get spiralling(truely damaging) inflation in the system all we need is above inflation pay-rises to kick in. _________________________________________________ "It should indicate a trend chnage." redfoliage2, Whole heartedly agree dude, But getting this rise out of the BOJ (if indeed it comes) has been like pulling teeth,or getting blood out of a stone.....They're going to do it but they most definately don't want to do it. Hence i'm not expecting anything else from the 'BOJ' until the second half of '07 at the earliest,imvho With the rate 'differential' virtually still set in place even after this week (and getting wider in the UK against Japan)......Tis a case of carry on 'carry'(ing) on>>> i.e....The Japan/Rest o' the world 'carry-trade' is still in place for most if not all of this year,imho Regards.V