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I'm surprised. I found a Bear.


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#1 nimblebear

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:07 PM

Jeremy Grantham. Long term - no or little gains in US stocks or international for 7 years. Based on earnings he thinks stocks should be valued at 30-40% lower than now.

Now this is a first - he says to go into TIPs. I can't recall anybody recommending TIPS, especially over the long haul. Bonds won't fare well either. Commodities look ok.

My very small position in inflation protected bonds have stunk it up this past year. I guess I'm early.

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OTIS.

#2 fib_1618

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 05:48 PM

"The major factor confusing a lot of people now is that the price-earnings ratio of the market doesn't look that bad from a historical perspective," Inker said. "But the earnings part of the equation is at unsustainable levels. And that's around the world, not just in the U.S."

Worry, worry, worry....don't you love it?

Fundamentalists....where would market technicians be without them?

Fib

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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#3 dcengr

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 06:15 PM

"The major factor confusing a lot of people now is that the price-earnings ratio of the market doesn't look that bad from a historical perspective," Inker said. "But the earnings part of the equation is at unsustainable levels. And that's around the world, not just in the U.S."

Worry, worry, worry....don't you love it?

Fundamentalists....where would market technicians be without them?

Fib


Except your flat in your core account.. for some reason :lol:

I guess sometimes worry is a good thing ;)
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#4 da_cheif

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 09:28 PM

heres another one....dime a dozen these guys
http://www.jasmts.com/promonews/

and another
http://www.hussmanfu...c/wmc070115.htm

#5 fib_1618

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 10:26 PM

Except your flat in your core account.. for some reason laugh.gif

I guess sometimes worry is a good thing wink.gif

Out of context, and if you've been reading the chats, you know exactly why.

I have no worries, I just listen to the market. Do you?

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#6 U.F.O.

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 10:34 PM

Hey fib. How goes it? I've missed reading you guys. Does Don still post here? U.F.O.
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#7 dcengr

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 11:17 PM

Except your flat in your core account.. for some reason laugh.gif

I guess sometimes worry is a good thing wink.gif

Out of context, and if you've been reading the chats, you know exactly why.

I have no worries, I just listen to the market. Do you?

Fib


I have read the chats, but I'm not quite sure if I understand why you went flat in the core account.

As I recall, you thought that trouble would be signaled by money flow problems evident in cumulative A-D. I think you mentioned in the chat lately that this appears to look fine.

But I also read that you did not like how the buying was done in the morning and not in the afternoon, thus revealing a lack of conviction in the domestic markets for stocks, which you worried you.

I also read the bits about the reduction in NYSI and NASI, but recall prior conversations where you said it would still go up on fumes because there was plenty of momentum to push prices higher even if money flow momentum seems to have slowed.

I guess I'm reading/listening, but maybe just not understanding.. but I do understand that you are currently flat your core accounts, and not long, but feel we're in wave 3, the most bullish leg of EWT, and climbing a wall of worry...
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#8 dcengr

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Posted 16 January 2007 - 11:34 PM

Btw, I think back in may, you went flat on your core account, and that was a marvelous bit o' timing before the market took a dump. So, even if I don't quite understand how the rules of your core account work, being short right now, I feel better that you're flat :lol: But if you want to spend the time to explain it so that "even a caveman could understand it", then I wouldn't mind :).
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#9 fib_1618

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 12:09 AM

I have read the chats, but I'm not quite sure if I understand why you went flat in the core account.

This is what I said on 12/21/06:

"Although breadth of market remains buoyant, the price pattern rhythm of the major market averages continue to trade in a sluggish manner since December expirations. With some important technical indicators also showing a lack of conviction right now, and with the holidays coming up next week, I believe it to be prudent to close my long positions and switch my core accounts to cash as of today's close and call it a year."

Short, concise and on point. Nothing more or less, just good trading discipline.

Your other references are either taken out of context or have been discussed in depth many times in the chat room as to its appropriateness. If you find it problematic in following the transcripts, you are always invited to join the sessions where you can present your queries for further clarifications.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#10 greenie

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 12:18 AM

This is what I said on 12/21/06:

"Although breadth of market remains buoyant, the price pattern rhythm of the major market averages continue to trade in a sluggish manner since December expirations. With some important technical indicators also showing a lack of conviction right now, and with the holidays coming up next week, I believe it to be prudent to close my long positions and switch my core accounts to cash as of today's close and call it a year."


Not sure I understand it. Are you still flat, or loaded on to those long positions, now that it is a new year, and sentiment, breadth etc. are positive for a 3 of 3?
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !