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Market Vane looks broken


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#1 spielchekr

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 08:31 PM

Pedal to the metal bullish ( ie bearish to contrarians) for like three years now. Maybe it's just been doing one of those "pulling the rubber band as far back as it will go until it snaps" things.

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Edited by spielchekr, 17 January 2007 - 08:35 PM.


#2 da_cheif

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 08:47 PM

dont blame the piano if the the music comes out lousy

#3 spielchekr

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 09:10 PM

Many folks think J.S. Bach wrote lousy music (much too contrapuntal). I blame the ears. ;)



If you think "for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction", Market Vane kind of compliments this chart (I show Teaparty's chart instead because it's much more polished). Check out Market Vane's 3-year coil down at the green line prior to 1995. And the inversion midpoint right about where Tea's got the centerline . See it?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=W&st=1989-01-01&i=p79439938994&a=94810021&r=4728.png

#4 da_cheif

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 09:54 PM

true to form???...well if it is then like from 1994 to 2000 the vix should rise like the stock market eh.....soo... if the dow tripled while the vix went from 8 to 50 in the 90.s.....then wadya think will happen now that the dows divisor is a mere fraction of what it was in in 94???....40 k....eh.......snort

#5 dcengr

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 10:01 PM

true to form???...well if it is then like from 1994 to 2000 the vix should rise like the stock market eh.....soo... if the dow tripled while the vix went from 8 to 50 in the 90.s.....then wadya think will happen now that the dows divisor is a mere fraction of what it was in in 94???....40 k....eh.......snort


Lets wait til your 1997 prediction of dow 16,000 comes true before we start talking about dow 40,000 :lol:
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#6 da_cheif

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 10:14 PM

u can laff....but the fact is the nyse has allready exceeded it in relative terms........when i told everybody in 87 that 3000 would be taken out like a hot knife thru butter...there were plenty like you giving me the same ********.....

#7 dcengr

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 10:25 PM

u can laff....but the fact is the nyse has allready exceeded it in relative terms........when i told everybody in 87 that 3000 would be taken out like a hot knife thru butter...there were plenty like you giving me the same ********.....


Cheif.. NYA didn't break 3000 until May 95.. thats 8 years later.

Come on now... wtf is the use of predicting something without time? I've said it before, I'll predict NYA will break 10,000 sometime in the future. That doesn't make me a genius does it?

You tell me WHEN it'll break it, that'll make you a genius. Otherwise, picking a value that'll naturally reach there due to inflation doesn't make anyone a prophet.

Edited by dcengr, 17 January 2007 - 10:26 PM.

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#8 dcengr

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Posted 17 January 2007 - 10:40 PM

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#9 spielchekr

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Posted 18 January 2007 - 07:13 AM

true to form???...well if it is then like from 1994 to 2000 the vix should rise like the stock market eh.....soo... if the dow tripled while the vix went from 8 to 50 in the 90.s.....then wadya think will happen now that the dows divisor is a mere fraction of what it was in in 94???....40 k....eh.......snort


I'm just thinking of a theoretical symmetrical inversion from the 2000 line.
It could just regenerate afresh like you say, though.
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#10 spielchekr

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Posted 18 January 2007 - 08:45 PM

Did you know that some lanquages are actually read right to left?



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