3 replies to this topic

[greenie]

may not fill in some of our lifetime.


[I know I made many bad calls so far, but I am trying everyday to educate me and improve. Let us see how this one plays out].

On hindsight, looks like this was the top.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=65105


The logic behind my current forecast:

1. What is unusual about today's gap is it did not leave any gap in VXN. Gaps in VXN get closed soon.


2. Last leg up on NDX were on junks flying high (sign of a terminal). Check SIRI, AMLN, XMSR etc from Dec low, and you will know who led the upswing. Those companies are aggresively being sold.


3. Many of the other world markets seem to have topped (KOSPI, JKSE, BOVSP, etc.). In most of this 4 year bull market, world markets topped way later than NDX etc.

4. RUO/RLV, NDX:SPX etc. are all in downtrend. Amount of money is shrinking.

http://www.traders-t...?...c=65053&hl=

5. Everybody ignores my top call (It also happened on May 11).

Edited by greenie, 18 January 2007 - 10:19 AM.

[dcengr]

If you had made the top call of "gap never filling in our lifetime" in may, that would've been wrong. So far I'm not seeing things too bearish, because I'm not seeing a ton of people buying the dip.

[eminimee]

Here's the important short term question...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&i=p06318973835&a=89430406&r=6738.png

[Cirrus]

That depends how much a cup of coffee will cost in US $'s in 2020.