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#11 CLK

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 08:29 PM

I look forward to applying more ewave but I'm not about to attempt to use
it in a vaccuum, just supplement to other TA.


I know my count can be labeled different but this is the way I see it.

Note the Stochastic signature on the NDX 2006 5 wave top is identical to TOL
right here.

I think we get one more dip to the 54 ema to complete A down for NDX,
whether we do a smaller abc within to get there or not.

After the ABC is done I think we make a stronger run at the highs than last year,
then we will hit Armstrong's top 2-27-07, who knows after that, but I cap the downside
at 5%, 10% absolute max.

:)


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#12 dcengr

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 08:40 PM

I find the characteristics of each wave most useful.. Elliott was masterful in determining the order of human psycology as it relates to the stock market. The actual mechanics of determining the structure of each wave.. labeling, the extensions, etc etc.. seem less concrete than the sequence of how a bull market unfolds. And using technical tools to pinpoint where you are relative to the bull market (early or late stages) is something we do most here. The way you've got the labeling, then the B wave up from A in the NDX would imply that we should go up on weak technicals (ie breadth problems, odd-lot orgies, etc). Should be easy to spot if thats the case.
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#13 securelstmile

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 08:56 PM

You know what I think is really cool. This guy and fib have similar counts on the overall market and they have a combined experience of about 50 years. This guy also told everyone to buy china stocks last April and he caught the bottom this summer like fib. I don't think either one of them know each other which is why it is so interesting.

I wouldn't even attempt to do a count until I watch these guys do it for at least another 10 years.

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#14 CLK

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 08:59 PM

To be fair, the falling triangle got me last year, need to study up on
my triangle theory a bit.



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#15 dcengr

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 09:08 PM

You know what I think is really cool. This guy and fib have similar counts on the overall market and they have a combined experience of about 50 years. This guy also told everyone to buy china stocks last April and he caught the bottom this summer like fib. I don't think either one of them know each other which is why it is so interesting.

I wouldn't even attempt to do a count until I watch these guys do it for at least another 10 years.

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/


Thanks for that link :).

I can't seem to find a longer count on his blog, however. If you have a direct link to it, I would appreciate it.

As for attempting to do a count, its easy :) if you're wrong, just recount, thats how its done. Even the experts do it.

Ok found his longer term count at the very last post.

Edited by dcengr, 19 January 2007 - 09:10 PM.

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#16 da_cheif

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 09:17 PM

The best way for you to demonstrate your ability and expertise in such manner, is for you to present your count, here, on this board, for everyone to see.

Sigh...we've been down this road before and it served no real purpose (right Norton?).

I am, however, currently working with an ongoing Elliott count on the US Dollar, and have done so for nearly a year now. If you wish to review that exercise, you can find it over at Technical Watch.

As far as my so called "expertise", and my "guru" status, I have never claimed to be either. I am a student of the market just like everyone else that reviews the comments posted here and elsewhere. As far as my "ability" is concerned when it comes to technical analysis, I, unlike others, work directly with many people on a one to one basis in sharing my knowledge when it comes to various types of price pattern analysis, and evidently, do a fairly good job at it going by the information shared and the eventual outcomes. And so, I will let my track record speak for itself.

Unfortunately though, it would seem that once again I have over stayed my welcome here at Traders-Talk in my continuing attempt of nudging people in the right direction while not trying to be seemingly pompous in the process. This has never been my intention, but since it would seem otherwise, another break from posting here at Traders-Talk seems to be necessary.


You all know where I can reached, and thank you Mark (et al) for continuing to provide a nice place for many to call home.

Good Trading

Fib


i know exactly how u feel.......snort

Edited by da_cheif, 19 January 2007 - 09:18 PM.


#17 securelstmile

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 09:31 PM

You know what I think is really cool. This guy and fib have similar counts on the overall market and they have a combined experience of about 50 years. This guy also told everyone to buy china stocks last April and he caught the bottom this summer like fib. I don't think either one of them know each other which is why it is so interesting.

I wouldn't even attempt to do a count until I watch these guys do it for at least another 10 years.

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/


Thanks for that link :).

I can't seem to find a longer count on his blog, however. If you have a direct link to it, I would appreciate it.

As for attempting to do a count, its easy :) if you're wrong, just recount, thats how its done. Even the experts do it.

Ok found his longer term count at the very last post.


I don't think I would trust just anyone with a count. I know how difficult it is, but I do understand that people need to keep trying in order to learn and this is a great place to do that. Fib has proven himself and this guy really has made some sharp calls too but I haven't followed him as long as I have Fib. Others here do great counts too I don't want to single anyone out others just have different time frames so sometimes it seems apples to oranges.

If you can't do something find someone who can and learn. It doesn't matter what it is.

You know what I think is really cool. This guy and fib have similar counts on the overall market and they have a combined experience of about 50 years. This guy also told everyone to buy china stocks last April and he caught the bottom this summer like fib. I don't think either one of them know each other which is why it is so interesting.

I wouldn't even attempt to do a count until I watch these guys do it for at least another 10 years.

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/


Thanks for that link :).

I can't seem to find a longer count on his blog, however. If you have a direct link to it, I would appreciate it.

As for attempting to do a count, its easy :) if you're wrong, just recount, thats how its done. Even the experts do it.

Ok found his longer term count at the very last post.



That guy will charge you $1000 for what Fib offered here for free. (until today.) Too bad this always happens.
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#18 dcengr

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 09:32 PM

I don't think I would trust just anyone with a count. I know how difficult it is, but I do understand that people need to keep trying in order to learn and this is a great place to do that. Fib has proven himself and this guy really has made some sharp calls too but I haven't followed him as long as I have Fib. Others here do great counts too I don't want to single anyone out others just have different time frames so sometimes it seems apples to oranges.

If you can't do something find someone who can and learn. It doesn't matter what it is.


Well the guy you posted says we're in Primary Wave 5, not Primary Wave 3. As I said, almost every EW guy will have a different count.

One thing thats for sure is, if you're bullish during a bull market, you're usually right. Makes you look like a genius, even if you can't pick the IT tops and go through loss of 80% of your profits until the market goes back up and once again makes you look like a genius.

In this business, there really is a golden rule: Those that know how to make $, usually don't need to sell subscription services. Those that know how to make money usually don't need to work at anything other than making more money (ie has no other job than making money, and is good at it).

Not the best rule, but usually a good one.
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#19 CLK

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 09:41 PM

I know Fib helps people on an individual basis, and that he genuinely wants to help people learn the right methods. I've enjoyed his posts here and hope that he won't stop. I also can appreciate his keeping his work close to the vest when it comes to posting it to a large crowd. I have reservations of my own about that, I don't mind 20 people seeing my work but if 1000 people keep picking it up and they just happen to have enough money to mess up the market makers then that same posted work may stop working like it is supposed to.

#20 securelstmile

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Posted 19 January 2007 - 10:00 PM

I don't think I would trust just anyone with a count. I know how difficult it is, but I do understand that people need to keep trying in order to learn and this is a great place to do that. Fib has proven himself and this guy really has made some sharp calls too but I haven't followed him as long as I have Fib. Others here do great counts too I don't want to single anyone out others just have different time frames so sometimes it seems apples to oranges.

If you can't do something find someone who can and learn. It doesn't matter what it is.


Well the guy you posted says we're in Primary Wave 5, not Primary Wave 3. As I said, almost every EW guy will have a different count.

One thing thats for sure is, if you're bullish during a bull market, you're usually right. Makes you look like a genius, even if you can't pick the IT tops and go through loss of 80% of your profits until the market goes back up and once again makes you look like a genius.

In this business, there really is a golden rule: Those that know how to make $, usually don't need to sell subscription services. Those that know how to make money usually don't need to work at anything other than making more money (ie has no other job than making money, and is good at it).

Not the best rule, but usually a good one.


Intermediate 3 of a major 3 of primary 5. He is still quite bullsh for the long term if you take the time to read his work. He talks a great deal about the massive global liquidity and has called gold and oil fairly well too. He changes his counts slightly as the market evolves. I can't imagine any technician changing their view at least slightly as the market unfolds.



I know Fib helps people on an individual basis, and that he genuinely
wants to help people learn the right methods.

I've enjoyed his posts here and hope that he won't stop.


I also can appreciate his keeping his work close to the vest
when it comes to posting it to a large crowd.


I have reservations of my own about that, I don't mind 20 people
seeing my work but if 1000 people keep picking it up and they just happen
to have enough money to mess up the market makers then that same
posted work may stop working like it is supposed to.

]]


Clk,

Do you read his transcripts or join his chats? Great stuff! He calls the market as well as anyone I have ever seen.
The harder I work, the luckier I get.