28 replies to this topic

[CLK]

I don't think I would trust just anyone with a count. I know how difficult it is, but I do understand that people need to keep trying in order to learn and this is a great place to do that. Fib has proven himself and this guy really has made some sharp calls too but I haven't followed him as long as I have Fib. Others here do great counts too I don't want to single anyone out others just have different time frames so sometimes it seems apples to oranges.

If you can't do something find someone who can and learn. It doesn't matter what it is.

Well the guy you posted says we're in Primary Wave 5, not Primary Wave 3. As I said, almost every EW guy will have a different count.

One thing thats for sure is, if you're bullish during a bull market, you're usually right. Makes you look like a genius, even if you can't pick the IT tops and go through loss of 80% of your profits until the market goes back up and once again makes you look like a genius.

In this business, there really is a golden rule: Those that know how to make $, usually don't need to sell subscription services. Those that know how to make money usually don't need to work at anything other than making more money (ie has no other job than making money, and is good at it).

Not the best rule, but usually a good one.


Intermediate 3 of a major 3 of primary 5. He is still quite bullsh for the long term if you take the time to read his work. He talks a great deal about the massive global liquidity and has called gold and oil fairly well too. He changes his counts slightly as the market evolves. I can't imagine any technician changing their view at least slightly as the market unfolds.

I know Fib helps people on an individual basis, and that he genuinely
wants to help people learn the right methods.

I've enjoyed his posts here and hope that he won't stop.


I also can appreciate his keeping his work close to the vest
when it comes to posting it to a large crowd.


I have reservations of my own about that, I don't mind 20 people
seeing my work but if 1000 people keep picking it up and they just happen
to have enough money to mess up the market makers then that same
posted work may stop working like it is supposed to.

]]


Clk,

Do you read his transcripts or join his chats? Great stuff! He calls the market as well as anyone I have ever seen.

No I haven't, but will check it out.

[colion]

I'll expand it bit tomorrow....(unless Nav or Fib get to you first)

ROFL...Nope, be my guest E/T...they're all yours!

What I would suggest to everyone when trying to apply Elliott counts is that you keep it really simple, and by all means, please follow the strict rules of the methodology (this would include reading every page of the book and not scanning it to find something that would suit a particular purpose).

Simple means taking the chart pattern and looking at it in line form, close only, to see if it has the "right look". This will also clean up the garbage of the intraday action which suits no real purpose to begin with.

Following the strict rules of Elliott are paramount from keeping you from going completely insane (and I have seen many who have over the last 30 years). And above all else, the degree of labeling is the single most important thing in Elliott's application. If there's any one area in which 90% of analysts fail when using Elliott it is in their knowing exactly the degree of the price pattern structure. Without this specific knowledge, it would be like acknowledging a head and shoulders pattern formation and not including the volume characteristics that make such a pattern viable.

In fact, I'll wager that if you, nav, and Fib were to independently do a count, they would ALL look different

That might be, but I would bet you a large lunch at a drive through of your choice that all three of us would be following the rules laid out in the blue book and not seemingly guessing as you've done with your attempt in this thread. Furthermore, we would all be able to back up the count consideration with various technical tools that key in on the character of the price action, and the momentum behind it, that would allow the count idea to have the merit of even being considered in the first place.

Hint: You can not in any way have a personal emotional bias in using Elliott. Until you rid yourself of this albatross, you're just going to be spinning your wheels in your effort to utilize such a tool in your trading strategy.

Fib

I luv these types of discussions. So, which Elliott is the right Elliott? Prechter Elliot? Neely Elliott? Miner Elliott? My Ellitott? Your Elliott? Which one produces the best useable results? Has anyone tried to objectively evalute the different schools of Elliott stuff?

[da_cheif]

there are many elliott wave "experts"....but only one real authority with the record of performance to prove it....snort

[dcengr]

there are many elliott wave "experts"....but only one real authority with the record of performance to prove it....snort

You tell em Cheif

[raleigh]

Counting angels on a pinhead works better than counting waves.

[dcengr]

Its not the size of the wave, but how you use it that counts Lets just drop the topic since apparently some of the members of this board get a bit more emotional than perhaps they should when discussing this particular tool and no good can come from it.

[Jnavin]

It's a violation of classic Elliott Wave to even think about applying the method to an individual stock. Not enough "bits of data." I realize this tenent of the theory is widely ignored and has fallen by the wayside, but I still subscribe to it. I only apply e-wave to those charts tied to massive volume -- INDU, SPX, NDX, T-bonds, currencies and commodities. Everything else is an inappropriate use.

[eminimee]

"Lets just drop the topic since apparently some of the members of this board get a bit more emotional than perhaps they should when discussing this particular tool and no good can come from it." Agreed.....just read this thread this morning...I should have just kept my mouth shut.....it's not worth my time or effort to even get involved as nothing would be accomplished. . . . not to mention that I'm not qualified enough to offer any type of education. I will just say that both those counts that started this thread break more than a few rules....RULES are paramount. ....I have posted a weekly HGX with my count many times lately...you can look it up if interested.

Edited by Teaparty, 20 January 2007 - 06:54 AM.

[PorkLoin]

Oh come on, People.



JNavin makes a good point about apply Elliott to individual stocks. IMO there's enough participation in TOL to give it a shot.

The move up from the July low looks corrective to me, not impulsive. The last C isn't for price level, just for direction.



Doug