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More E Wave for individual stock stuff


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#1 PorkLoin

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Posted 20 January 2007 - 04:09 PM

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This is one of my uranium stocks. Elliott Wave isn't all arcane magic; a lot of it is the same stuff others have noted in pattern recognition going back to Edwards and Magee. There's a little pennant or contracting triangle there.


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In the poor, maligned TOL thread Dcengr mentioned that finding the characteristics of each wave is useful. "E" waves in triangles are often foolers since they often break the trendline that was in place to that point. They often come on news and make emotional "spike" highs or lows. In this case it'd be looking like a top might be in place and now we're going down in earnest (on Jan. 16).

After a contracting triangle, a post-triangle thrust is expected, and we certainly got that. Even in cruddy little stocks like this you frequently see such.

Personally, I find the most value in Elliott Wave in trying to stay with the larger prevailing trend, and figure out when corrections have a good chance of being done.


Best,

Doug

#2 snorkels4

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Posted 20 January 2007 - 06:20 PM

got to wonder what uranium will do if uso bounces big :huh:http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t41223656619&r=8116.png

http://stockcharts.c...7415&r=2026.png

Edited by snorkels4, 20 January 2007 - 06:22 PM.

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#3 PorkLoin

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Posted 20 January 2007 - 07:14 PM

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Hey Snorkels, is there a connection between oil/USO and uranium?

I've read that some suppliers and buyers of uranium are going with flexible contracts. Rather than commit for a fixed price, given that it's been rising so fast, some contracts are now being written to adjust for changing prices as time goes along.

This would make it harder to know what the real "benchmark" price is. Anyway, it's stalled at $72 for some weeks now.



Best,

Doug

#4 snorkels4

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Posted 20 January 2007 - 07:56 PM

Hey Snorkels, is there a connection between oil/USO and uranium? ------------------- energy=energy :cry: thats what i thought anyway whats a symbol for uranium at stockcharts :blush: what if uranium does cliff dive like oil :unsure: i dont know about the fundies on uranium but ive heard $100 target a few years back i was foolin around with stockfetcher.com looking for minimicro pennies screening for low volatility. uranium plays were flat lined and the volume was almost nothing. heck a 1000 sharesof some of these were $1. i dont know if i could buy micropennies at the time with the account i had with fidelity. needless to say the volume increased and the rest is history. the news at the time was horrible and they werent dropping--should have been a dead giveaway :angry: those times were historical and will never be touched again :blink:

Edited by snorkels4, 20 January 2007 - 08:03 PM.

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#5 PorkLoin

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Posted 21 January 2007 - 01:54 AM

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Oil went from a high of almost $80 to under $50, and Natural Gas went from $15+ to $4+, while uranium was just heading higher steadily.

There is a connection, but it would be a slow-moving deal -- it's not like you can build nuclear power plants fast. I don't see anybody switching back and forth between the fuels (whereas with oil and NG that does happen).

And while oil and NG are often big expenses, even with the higher U3O8 prices it's less than 10% of the cost of running a nuke plant, so there isn't the "lid" of demand destruction from higher prices. Maybe someday there will be, but I think it'd be far higher than where we are now.

Lots of nuke plants are going to be built around the world, and the demand for uranium is steadily going higher. Hasn't been any really big finds lately, either, and people are out there drilling. Could happen any time, and if so that company will skyrocket. Overall the demand picture is massively bullish even if that happens, IMO. I don't think there will be any cliff-diving for a while, anyway. We're using up the above-ground stocks from disassembled warheads, and not mining near what we need per year.

StockCharts has no Uranium symbol. Just some companies involved with it, a few warrants on them, etc. Maybe some day and that might mark a good time to sell. I don't see uranium really in the public consciousness yet, and maybe we'll get a good speculative blow-off to sell into one day.

Best,

Doug