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Not a sentiment fan but ...


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#1 A-ha

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:37 PM

for the last few weeks, I got the impression that many here convincibly think it is invincible... first time since the beginning of this bull market and just like how a terminal should do.. And I think S&P will crash and test 950-1030 range this year.

#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:41 PM

I don't know about Crash, but I do know that we have a good sentiment set-up for a correction. My read, however, is that we've probably got another run higher before see a really good decline. Today's action was predicted in the weekend letter. Mark

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#3 securelstmile

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:43 PM

for the last few weeks, I got the impression that many here convincibly think it is invincible... first time since the beginning of this bull market and just like how a terminal should do..

And I think S&P will crash and test 950-1030 range this year.



Why is it, when everyone speaks of sentiment, it is always the other guy? Why don't people consider their own sentiment?

Honestly, who do you know best? Just something to think about. It has become something of a silly game where everyone thinks they know what everyone else is thinking. Fade the fader who is fading the other fader. <_<
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#4 greenie

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:44 PM

Hey xD, your chinese parabola is flying higher than your target. Any comment?
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It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#5 dcengr

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:45 PM

for the last few weeks, I got the impression that many here convincibly think it is invincible... first time since the beginning of this bull market and just like how a terminal should do..

And I think S&P will crash and test 950-1030 range this year.


Last few weeks? Its been 6+ months on this leg. Sentiment still isn't in what I would consider "invincible" mode.

But I find it encouraging that futures positions skyrocketted last week, taking it back up to near the highest $ amount its seen (all against commercials, ofcourse), while prices barely budged.

If there's a crash, derivatives can lead the way again. Previous week, they had reduced it without much price decay, but that was mostly reversed this week.
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#6 A-ha

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:56 PM

for the last few weeks, I got the impression that many here convincibly think it is invincible... first time since the beginning of this bull market and just like how a terminal should do..

And I think S&P will crash and test 950-1030 range this year.



Why is it, when everyone speaks of sentiment, it is always the other guy? Why don't people consider their own sentiment?

Honestly, who do you know best? Just something to think about. It has become something of a silly game where everyone thinks they know what everyone else is thinking. Fade the fader who is fading the other fader. <_<



Not fading anybody .. Like I said I am neither a sentiment trader, nor do I get it like Mark and other sentiment pros...

This is just a simple observation that fits the big picture in my mind.

I definately dont think that I am right and the majority wrong. The majority could be right very well. Especially near the end of the moves, everybody is right.



Hey xD, your chinese parabola is flying higher than your target. Any comment?



Like I said in my call, break above 2910 will invalidate it

Edited by xD&Cox, 22 January 2007 - 12:56 PM.


#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 12:56 PM

The majority is often right, especially in the middle of a trend. securelstmile, I did want to say that I always try to look at my own sentiment. The easy trade for me is the one to avoid. The tough one is most appealing (and the one I'm constantly trying to keep myself from avoiding). At any given time, we're ALL fadable. That's what the market does. My job is to try to minimize the incidence and damage of such times. Mark

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#8 securelstmile

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:04 PM

for the last few weeks, I got the impression that many here convincibly think it is invincible... first time since the beginning of this bull market and just like how a terminal should do..

And I think S&P will crash and test 950-1030 range this year.



Why is it, when everyone speaks of sentiment, it is always the other guy? Why don't people consider their own sentiment?

Honestly, who do you know best? Just something to think about. It has become something of a silly game where everyone thinks they know what everyone else is thinking. Fade the fader who is fading the other fader. <_<



Not fading anybody .. Like I said I am neither a sentiment trader, nor do I get it like Mark and other sentiment pros...

This is just a simple observation that fits the big picture in my mind.

I definately dont think that I am right and the majority wrong. The majority could be right very well. Especially near the end of the moves, everybody is right.



XD,

You are definitely in the minority if you don't think you are always right and the majority are wrong because it seems lately the majority think that they know what the majority is thinking. And yes, during the end of a move no one will be fadeable. That will be really interesting.

The majority is often right, especially in the middle of a trend.

securelstmile, I did want to say that I always try to look at my own sentiment. The easy trade for me is the one to avoid. The tough one is most appealing (and the one I'm constantly trying to keep myself from avoiding).

At any given time, we're ALL fadable. That's what the market does. My job is to try to minimize the incidence and damage of such times.

Mark



Mark,

Exactly, I think we need to be in touch with our own sentiment before we start deciding what others think. It is a tricky game. In 1999 you could have gone broke trying to fade the average player but in the end you would have been correct but the question remains would you have any money left by that time. I know you have used sentiment very well but I see it emphasized to such a degree everywhere that I question if it won't become the hook for awhile like it did in 1999. That is all I am saying.
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#9 arbman

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:16 PM

Well, I know that the credit growth has been slower although the inflation has been also lower and both are kind of now declining --the dollar is also stronger, so more liquidity or less liquidity? I think less than more. So, it doesn't matter what we think, it is about the (im)balance of the supply and demand since the participants are more and more speculating for the further upside although the liquidity picture is slowly changing at this juncture, as I said. These have been usually the recipee for the correction, no fading, insult or ingenuity required beyond it. There might be though a little longer term conditionning this time. I hope though this is not the IT top yet since I am not quite ready... - kisa

#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 January 2007 - 01:25 PM

I think sentiment runs into trouble when everyone is trying to fade the other guy. The really BIG money that runs the market doesn't care about Sentiment,. It's just a "twisted NYC headset" game they invented to manage and control the markets because they control huge amounts of capital and can make that tape and chart read any way they want, under normal conditions.. If you listen to Wall Street logic, they'll have you thinking red is green and down is up... When the game is OVER though, it's OVER. I seem to remember that it took a hell of a long time in 2000 for a lot of folks to realize it, especially in Silicon Valley, but if you read that March 2000 tape right, you could see OLD MONEY leaving the market ahead of the sinking ship.
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