Gap up and crap tomorrow
#1
Posted 23 January 2007 - 06:32 PM
#2
Posted 23 January 2007 - 07:48 PM
scientific
I guess you meant 'emprical' or 'statistical', but thanks for sharing...
#3
Posted 23 January 2007 - 07:50 PM
scientific
I guess you meant 'emprical' or 'statistical', but thanks for sharing...
I didn't mean anything by it, except that it looks coincidentally similar
Market can and will do whatever it wants to do. I find it interesting, though that the sentiment picture and the price pattern looks similar. The gap up tomorrow is almost guaranteed too.
#4
Posted 23 January 2007 - 08:05 PM
#5
Posted 23 January 2007 - 08:59 PM
scientific
I guess you meant 'emprical' or 'statistical', but thanks for sharing...
I didn't mean anything by it, except that it looks coincidentally similar
Market can and will do whatever it wants to do. I find it interesting, though that the sentiment picture and the price pattern looks similar. The gap up tomorrow is almost guaranteed too.
#6
Posted 23 January 2007 - 09:10 PM
If the CBOE reported open interest numbers are correct (two days in a row), then the demand in the calls and puts had a 35% haircut. Not only the 17M calls from 3 wks ago now shrank to 11M net calls, cashed out or expired. I believe this is a very important indication that the institutional interest in the market is now changing...
- kisa
Interesting observation. Supporting your thesis, I sold Feb 42.5 HPQ calls yesterday against underlying length for $0.85. HPQ closed up $0.29.....the calls closed up a nickel. Been doing something along these lines for months now and from memory when the call premiums didn't reflect price appreciation in the underlying, a correction soon followed....fwiw.
#7
Posted 24 January 2007 - 08:23 AM
Gap up and crap tomorrow
Looks like a real possibility to me.
Rich