4 replies to this topic

[denleo]

Long SP futures from 1436.50. Placing break even stop. My problem is low VIX. If not stopped out, I will exit at 1440. Denleo

[SemiBizz]

Whatsamatta with you... Ignore those nasty volume divergences... What's happened to our resident bull?

Edited by SemiBizz, 24 January 2007 - 09:59 AM.

[gm_general]

There is an unusual disparity here - the VIX / 200 SMA is .79, which is close to where it can indicate SPX must turn down (usually bottoms around .73). However, I backtested this theory of relative VIX, and it was holding at the bottom for awhile in the Spring 2003 advance. Generally though it does indicate a turn when it is low like this. Actual VIX is kind of meaningless, except for when it hits a trend line. And it is less likely to hold to trend lines than the VXN in my observation. Here's the kicker though - the relative VXN is .93! Usually when the market is waaay overbought, this is about the same low level as the relative VIX, otherwise it usually has to play catch up. Which would mean a tech rally, without the usually SPX rally?

[eminimee]

Did I say last word for awhile only on the intermediate term outlook?....Can't resist some possibles short term..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=15&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&i=p25197650636&a=89308538&r=7312.png

[pdx5]

When VIX & VXO are low, there is no fear in the market. To da moon we go!! I am still hanging on to my partial longs in SPX. My target is 1450 to exit.