14 replies to this topic

[VermeerUK]

Hi all

Interesting thread

This reminded me of a piece (dated 16-1-2007) i read last week

Titled>>> "Leading Economic Indicators"...'url' posted below...(let the whole page load to see charts)

'Building Permits' are listed as No6 in importance regarding 'Lead-indicators'

Check out the latest chart technicals on 'Building Permits'....(4th chart down on the page)

Also read the piece that comes with it.....Very interesting,especially to the technicians on here,imvho

Could this be a genuine 'tell' on what's coming around the corner in the US?


http://www.freebuck....16mshedlock.htm

Regards.V

[jawndissedi]

What you don't seem to grasp, IT, is that your experience scrounging for nickels and dimes on the courthouse steps of fly-over country is no macro-economic significance whatsoever. This is:

You mean my 3+ decades of real estate experience is less significant than YOUR INTERPRETATION of macro-economic information that led you to short TOL at the lows????? Interesting perspective.

IT

Another post that demonstrates that you don't know what you're talking about. I bought some OCT puts on TOL that expired worthless for a loss of about $300. I haven't traded any other homebuilders because I am more interested in their impact on the economy as a whole than I am in the opportunities they present for ST trades. When the CEO of D.R.Horton states, as he did yesterday, that "Most downturns are longer and deeper (than people expect), and we are not seeing anything on the horizon to change that opinion." -- I pay attention. The fact that Horton and so many others continue to vigorously add to the housing inventory as the sales slow suggests to me that there will be a lot more downside before this sector truly recovers. The fact that more and more of this inventory stands vacant strikes me as particularly ominous.



[snipped by the admin and the starter of this thread]

[vulture]

One thing that's obvious....there's been one helluva nice rally in TOL for instance over the last 8 months while you've been posting these dire articles/predictions.

IT

Except that it dropped 60+% in the prior 12 months.

Edited by TTHQ Staff, 25 January 2007 - 09:24 AM.

[pdx5]

I am also interested on the impact of the housing situation on the economy and stock market since I do not invest in real-estate. Therefore the valuable information posted here in that regard is always appreciated. And I do NOT track any other poster's trades (I am too darn lazy for that) so you are all safe from me getting on your case

[OEXCHAOS]

fer crimini's sake....