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Nice breakout !


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#1 NAV

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 04:57 PM

As i said yesterday, these hourly buy signals are a tough fade. The million dollar question is always whether it's a genuine breakout or not. We shall know soon.

Here's a daily chart and the uptrend continues....

Posted Image

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#2 dcengr

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 04:59 PM

Are you currently long or flat?
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#3 denleo

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 05:02 PM

No doubt in my mind that it is genuine!! I was waiting for the close to see if we break out or not. I was prepared to short the failure. But we didn't fail and therefore I am long March SP at 1446.50. This is IT trade designed for at least 30 to 50 points. A close below 1427 on the futures will be bearish. Chances of that happening is about zero. This is a clear buy signal. Now I can hold without looking at this thing intraday. Denleo

#4 NAV

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 05:08 PM

Are you currently long or flat?


I am long. Since i did not post my entry, i will not post my exit either. I will post when the next hourly sell signal gets generated though.

Looks like the Ebay shorts are getting fried after hours.


No doubt in my mind that it is genuine!!

I was waiting for the close to see if we break out or not. I was prepared to short the failure. But we didn't fail and therefore I am long March SP at 1446.50. This is IT trade designed for at least 30 to 50 points. A close below 1427 on the futures will be bearish. Chances of that happening is about zero. This is a clear buy signal. Now I can hold without looking at this thing intraday.

Denleo


Did you close your long from yesterday ?

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#5 denleo

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 05:21 PM

My long from yesterday got stopped out at break even unfortunately. I got nervous this morning and placed a stop on a first rally attempt. So they stopped me out and then went up without me. Denleo

#6 CLK

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 06:37 PM

NAV, I see a possible scorching coming, inverse H&S everywhere, bullish daily macd also. That said, I'm short for a scalp. I know alot of people are looking for a big decline, but the upside has potential also even at these levels. I think this is a mid channel pause, with a big 10% correction coming in around SPX 1510 in another month. There is alot of rotation going on with little deterioration in index levels. I can't keep up with how many times people have called the top. Just taking my signals one day at a time as well.

#7 NAV

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 07:51 PM

NAV,

I see a possible scorching coming, inverse H&S everywhere, bullish daily macd also.
That said, I'm short for a scalp. I know alot of people are looking for a big decline,
but the upside has potential also even at these levels.
I think this is a mid channel pause, with a big 10% correction coming in around SPX 1510
in another month.
There is alot of rotation going on with little deterioration in index levels.
I can't keep up with how many times people have called the top.

Just taking my signals one day at a time as well.


CLK,

I agree. This runup from June 2006 has seen so many top calls (that includes me as well ) that my head spins. Even if someone catches the top tick of this market and shorts it, i would give zero credit to them.

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#8 CLK

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 08:19 PM

NAV,

I see a possible scorching coming, inverse H&S everywhere, bullish daily macd also.
That said, I'm short for a scalp. I know alot of people are looking for a big decline,
but the upside has potential also even at these levels.
I think this is a mid channel pause, with a big 10% correction coming in around SPX 1510
in another month.
There is alot of rotation going on with little deterioration in index levels.
I can't keep up with how many times people have called the top.

Just taking my signals one day at a time as well.


CLK,

I agree. This runup from June 2006 has seen so many top calls (that includes me as well ) that my head spins. Even if someone catches the top tick of this market and shorts it, i would give zero credit to them.




Well said.



I can't see abandoning the long setups just because it might be the top.

#9 eminimee

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 09:39 PM

I will pound the table that we are topping and there IS much risk at this point in time. Max upside 1% spx vs 7% down. .. . or more.

#10 dcengr

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Posted 24 January 2007 - 09:50 PM

I will pound the table that we are topping and there IS much risk at this point in time. Max upside 1% spx vs 7% down. .. . or more.


No amount of pounding will help at this point.. I've come to realization that we're in a unique point in the price trend.. you can read my blog about some observations I've been noting in several prominent bloggers..

Its wild. People who are staunch bulls or bears are going topsy turvy.. in matter of days.

Visit a few, and you will see what I'm talking about. Something important is about to happen.. I don't know the direction, but once this is over, this will be the end of the trading range..
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