6 replies to this topic

[greenie]

In the previous comment on Jan 22, I said:

2. ST - short term, we may be at a bottom. [deleted text]

The evidences for ST bottom are -
(i) NAA50R, NAHGH, NAMO, NALOW are far away from 10EMA and turning.
(ii) sentimentrader ST bearishness rises.
(iii) VXN opened gap today that has not been taken care of.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=65406

I decided to hold my partial NDX shorts from much higher level, but did not add any more.


After the last rally, we are now close to a ST top.

(i) internals are now reset to a place (w.r.t. 10EMA), where we could be at ST top and are ready to go down.
(ii) Sentimentrader is now ultra-bullish.
(iii) VXN closed the gap, and has now opened a gap above. An attempt to close the new gap will likely take NDX down.

IT context still looks like "chop near the top while turning down". Internals are now significantly weaker, but the indices held strong. NASI is below zero.

I plan to add the remaining shorts on any pop in NDX tomorrow with stop near the unfilled gap.

[hiker]

fyi...closing basis move above QQQQ 44.45 signals high danger for shorts.....risk to 47.50 is the minimum, based on PnF measurement on one PnF setting....

you have your own methods. just sharing some info.

you going to ride the short past 45.40, etc? no need to reply

good luck, Greenie...hope this trade works out.

you have others here cheering on the trade...some anyway...the silent ones are the ones to be concerned about.

just my 2c...hope you set some risk parameters beyond which you bail

--------------

other stuff says the reasons you cite above will be overwhelmed...but you know that I suppose...suggest you ck this link tomorrow a.m. -

http://forums.techni...618?forum=21252

the views expressed in tonight's chat are the ones that xD refers to as irrational couple weeks ago...Wave 3...yet, others with a good track record state otherwise is a potential .

Edited by hiker, 24 January 2007 - 08:55 PM.

[da_cheif]

from a clx and TA groupie on wolllie world over there its rarely a question about the short term.. Category: General Interest From: aph (Allan Harris) To: ALL Date Posted: January 23, 2007 at 21:39:54 Subject: Gravitas -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gravitas has been SHORT since January 15th, but today, the 23rd was forecast to be the end of the short-term sell-off and beginning of a one week up-trend, into January 30th. ------------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts made on 2007-01-20: The Xyber9TM short term Weekly forecast is as follows: We did see the markets move up to January 15th, then start moving down toward January 23rd as previously forecasted. We should see the markets continue to move down to January 23rd then change direction to move up to January 30th, up from the lows on January 23rd. I will close my short futures position on afternoon of January 23rd to allow my long SPY shares to move up with the market. I will update the next forecasts on January 27th.

[NAV]

Greenie, NDX will more than likely make new recovery highs based on my indicators. Yes, in our lifetimes

[greenie]

fyi...closing basis move above QQQQ 44.45 signals high danger for shorts.....risk to 47.50 is the minimum, based on PnF measurement on one PnF setting....

you have your own methods. just sharing some info.

you going to ride the short past 45.40, etc? no need to reply

Thanks Hiker.....I do appreciate your friendly advice. Yes, I am keeping my stops close, just in case. There is no problem getting stopped out and watching the market for few days.

[arbman]

I've been vaguely mentioning trades so I might as well update here, I expect my max pain limit of 1850 on NDX to be exceeded until the end of the month (up to 1900 or so), so I will close my only shorts in the morning. I closed some (25%) over the next 2 days to book some profits.

I think there will be better times in early Feb after the eom for the IT shorts and the attempts here are too early again. I will continue to focus on the large cap (SP) scalps or unleveraged larger (ETF) positions in the long side that I caught much of the moves over the past 2 days.

This was my second attempt to build an IT short position on NDX, I made some money, but the freight train takes time to stop and there is no need to let a winning trade turn sour. If it shoots right down from here, I will be sorry because I still believe I am correctly bearish about the IT trades at least until the early April timeframe. The aggressive growth phase is over and the tech should continue to lag this run up.

This is the time the market looks the strongest and appear to be defying the odds, but I do not believe it will since the divergences are not improving by further running higher here --it is the last money being thrown into the markets since I believe the liquidity is still being reduced for the IT timeframe, so this is only money management to get ready for a little fresh start from the higher levels.

My main reason so far is the treasury made about $35B worth auctions this month and it is supportive of the markets, although the Fed has been strict about the money supply. There is a good chance that the Fed might do a coupon pass or two in the days ahead fueling the rally further, I do not want to see that happening while holding shorts although I doubt it will benefit the growth issues much...

Good luck,
- kisa



PS. Here's my reason on NDX, the index appears to be breaking out of a declining trend line and the option picture again perceives lower risk compared to the previous low...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX:$QQV&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p26729644446&r=889&.png

[arbman]

I am still trying to cover my short positions, but it just keeps dropping... Still 50% short of my trading position on NDX after covering a little more in the moring. I think no significant rally upward from here, but NDX can kill a lot of premium around the 20 dma until it breaks sometime in Feb... Good luck, - kisa