4 replies to this topic

[IndexTrader]

Man, this has been some rollercoaster! When I last posted about my position I said I thought it might rally, but that I was holding my short. Little did I know we would rally nearly 20 points! There's a method to my madness. My belief is that there is considerable divergence between averages and between indicators. Perhaps the most obvious is the NDX and the SPX, where yesterday the SPX rallied to new highs, unconfirmed by the NDX. The week before the NDX had rallied to new highs unconfirmed by the SPX. Then too, none of these new highs are confirmed by the McClellan Summation Indices (to use that particular indicator). To me this leads me to believe we have plenty of room on the downside, and limited potential up for now. Of course, at the close last night I was undergoing some labored breathing with my short ES. My plan for today was to add to my short on further strength...but I didn't get that. So I'm still holding my original short from ES 1435.00, with a wide stop, riding that rollercoaster, but looking better at the moment than I did last night. A break of last weeks lows, should be get that, would be quite ominous. Further, a close on the lows of today would be ominous, regardless of where it is. Understand that MSFT reports tonight...always the potential for a market mover. IT

[eminimee]

you still may get a chance to add...but I believe 1432 ES is a MUST HOLD if any hope for one more high.

[NAV]

Man, this has been some rollercoaster! When I last posted about my position I said I thought it might rally, but that I was holding my short. Little did I know we would rally nearly 20 points!

There's a method to my madness. My belief is that there is considerable divergence between averages and between indicators. Perhaps the most obvious is the NDX and the SPX, where yesterday the SPX rallied to new highs, unconfirmed by the NDX. The week before the NDX had rallied to new highs unconfirmed by the SPX. Then too, none of these new highs are confirmed by the McClellan Summation Indices (to use that particular indicator).

To me this leads me to believe we have plenty of room on the downside, and limited potential up for now. Of course, at the close last night I was undergoing some labored breathing with my short ES.

My plan for today was to add to my short on further strength...but I didn't get that. So I'm still holding my original short from ES 1435.00, with a wide stop, riding that rollercoaster, but looking better at the moment than I did last night. A break of last weeks lows, should be get that, would be quite ominous. Further, a close on the lows of today would be ominous, regardless of where it is.

Understand that MSFT reports tonight...always the potential for a market mover.

IT

Man, you must be bored (if not scared) by now.

[pdx5]

Good short trade IndexTrader. I Shoulda sold my IT partial longs at yesterday's close. Oh well. But I still have 65 point on the plus side in SPX so not panicking yet. I have mental stop at SPX 1405. And target sell at 1450.

Edited by pdx5, 25 January 2007 - 02:26 PM.

[arbman]

Very good IndexTrader, I have the same observations, we had the same observations last April as well, but it still took until May to break lower and convince a few that there was going to be a parabolic blow off. I've been shaken 50% out of my IT short and I was going to completely close the position today, but the market shot itself before I decide to kill myself, so I will let it bleed some more. This has been a bit nerve wrecking, I agree... Good luck with your position, you might not need much though if SPX breaks below 1426 before the close! - kisa PS. I will close the position tomorrow probably, I think this much bleeding after a rally has a reason, the market must be still in a range, albeit a lower range...