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Breakout failure !


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#1 NAV

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:08 PM

Ain't pretty at all ! As i posted this morning, any hourly close below ES 1435 would qualify as a breakout failure in my book. The hourly trend is now broken and the daily charts looks like a possible outside reversal day, unless there is a significant rally into the close. SPX 1417 is the first dynamic support on the daily. We'll see what happens if and when we get there.

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#2 IndexTrader

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:13 PM

Are you short now? IT

#3 NAV

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:17 PM

No, not yet. I will wait for a bounce !

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#4 dcengr

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:18 PM

No, not yet. I will wait for a bounce !


Always room for one more... on the roller coaster :lol:
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#5 IndexTrader

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:22 PM

No, not yet. I will wait for a bounce !


Always room for one more... on the roller coaster :lol:


We don't need no more stinkin' bounces! :lol:

IT

#6 arbman

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:30 PM

The hedgies stopped selling volatility all of a sudden, this is a month (or two) after the SEC relaxed the margin rules. I have a feeling that the market is still in the wide range, but writing options is not the way to go, so they are trading instead of selling the volatility. Just some thoughts, this is also inline with the topping picture, many sharp ups and down perhaps without much trend, I don't think I am trained yet... :lol:

#7 NAV

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:36 PM

The hedgies stopped selling volatility all of a sudden, this is a month (or two) after the SEC relaxed the margin rules. I have a feeling that the market is still in the wide range, but writing options is not the way to go, so they are trading instead of selling the volatility. Just some thoughts, this is also inline with the topping picture, many sharp ups and down perhaps without much trend, I don't think I am trained yet... :lol:


What kind of a top are you looking for ? ST or IT ?


No, not yet. I will wait for a bounce !


Always room for one more... on the roller coaster :lol:


We don't need no more stinkin' bounces! :lol:

IT


Fair enough :lol:

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#8 arbman

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:42 PM

What kind of a top are you looking for ? ST or IT ?


Definitely IT... I am looking for an IT top in Feb, perhaps in the first week of Feb, the volatility is now going up, and it will continue to do so...

Don't you think there are many people who are now looking at these charts and drooling to buy puts or calls?!? Those will also have to give up. By the time it tops, everyone will be convinced that the high volatility is normal, until it doesn't come back. This is a prep for a large decline, no doubt about it...

#9 eminimee

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 03:42 PM

Something to please kis and annoy IT. :)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=8&i=p67438202531&a=91454708&r=8305.png

Edited by Teaparty, 25 January 2007 - 03:43 PM.


#10 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 04:05 PM

I was afraid of this type of action. I had to take defensive action, but I refused to go long and so far, that was the right call. I advised folks to not trust the rally last night. This type of reversal is demoralizing. Of course, I think Kisa is right, we're not quite trained yet. Everyone needs to be looking to cover shorts quickly and get long. Of course, I saw a little bit of that not long ago and in one of the polls. We could definitely see a couple percent on the downside, of course, too. Very choppy and deceptive market.

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