14 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

I don't follow them usually, so not sure how good they are or aren't.

Interesting to note they give it 76% chance of a -1.7% melt down in NDX tomorrow. That'll take us down to Qs 43 ish.

palisades research

[arbman]

They may be quite right, I got the same price only signal tonight, however the equity P/C closed at 0.71 and the overall P/C 1.2. We'll see whether the institutional guys shorted today... A few interesting observations now; 1. During the early July, the securities lending increased an the market rallied, during early January, the securities lending increased and the market declined. 2. During the early July, the open interest was rapidly increasing and the calls were increasing much faster --the CPCE was low the week prior to the rally, since the early January, the open interest is declining and the calls are shrinking --the CPCE now prints a high ratio --one more week? 3. A simple observation about the changing IT price structure, the weekly RSI(13) was making a round bottom in late July, now it is making a round top. The market might make another week or so, or maybe a few more days into Feb, but the days sure seems numbered. A sharp decline tomorrow will definitely change a lot of things... - kisa

[dcengr]

They may be quite right, I got the same price only signal tonight

What gave you the price signal?

[arbman]

I have my own signal processing system, but it can be distorted with too high or low P/C ratios, not to mention the Fed...

[CLK]

Airedale is the only one I've seen calling this a mid channel pause. Does no one even consider this ???

[dcengr]

Airedale is the only one I've seen calling this a mid channel pause.


Does no one even consider this ???

Airedale is very successful with his methods. I don't understand his methods, though I still have this hurst book I intend to go through at some time.

Once I understand his methods, I may consider it, but as I posted in Greenie's post, you can find about a dime a dozen opinions on which way the market is going to go at any nano second of the market. So with all respect to Airdale, whom I've seen as a good trader, one should never get into guruitis.

[CLK]

Airedale is the only one I've seen calling this a mid channel pause.


Does no one even consider this ???

Airedale is very successful with his methods. I don't understand his methods, though I still have this hurst book I intend to go through at some time.

Once I understand his methods, I may consider it, but as I posted in Greenie's post, you can find about a dime a dozen opinions on which way the market is going to go at any nano second of the market. So with all respect to Airdale, whom I've seen as a good trader, one should never get into guruitis.

I just use others ideas to support my own work, I think we are going higher,
maybe well into March. IT tops don't usually start this early.
From my chart below we already are coming out of the running correction.

When we top, I expect a 300+ point down day.

[dcengr]

Airedale is the only one I've seen calling this a mid channel pause.


Does no one even consider this ???

Airedale is very successful with his methods. I don't understand his methods, though I still have this hurst book I intend to go through at some time.

Once I understand his methods, I may consider it, but as I posted in Greenie's post, you can find about a dime a dozen opinions on which way the market is going to go at any nano second of the market. So with all respect to Airdale, whom I've seen as a good trader, one should never get into guruitis.

I just use others ideas to support my own work, I think we are going higher,
maybe well into March. IT tops don't usually start this early.
From my chart below we already are coming out of the running correction.

When we top, I expect a 300+ point down day.

Its a nice fuzzy herdy feeling to be with the crowd, even if they are good traders. But again, unless you understand the various methods and agree with the conclusions, one shouldn't base their trading decisions with "the crowd".

This is why I like to study many methods (there's always something new around the corner), and if I find that upon backtesting or logical theory behind why it should work, then I find it useful when many of the different methods agree to the same outcome.

You will find, amongst the newsletter writers, that they are all "good traders" who are profitable. But what you will also find is that when all these "good traders" all lean too much to one side, they're usually all wrong, no matter what their track record is.

[arbman]

The method you can trust must be a consistent method, a method that's consistently good is more important than what it is doing. In my experience, I found out that the analysis of the price patterns by digital signal processing either computationally or mannually like Airedale is doing is probably the most successful way. The Hurst's methods is a good foundation in that sense to gain the intuition, but the modern techniques with the help of the huge computational horse power does help tremendously for me, but it does take away the intuition or thinking part a bit. I believe a trader, like an engineer, must have a good intuition about his or her numerical methods. My observation is Airedale truly mastered the Hurst's methods in that sense... So no, although I studied Hurst's actual course notes, there is no such thing in my method called the mid-channel pause, it is all about time frames and dominancies for me and I would not exactly know what's gaining more strength etc since the computer does them for me. The former is a terminology within the Hurst's methods and it makes sense within the context of the numerical approach that Hurst applied... - kisa

[dcengr]

The method you can trust must be a consistent method, a method that's consistently good is more important than what it is doing. In my experience, I found out that the analysis of the price patterns by digital signal processing either computationally or mannually like Airedale is doing is probably the most successful way.

The Hurst's methods is a good foundation in that sense to gain the intuition, but the modern techniques with the help of the huge computational horse power does help tremendously for me, but it does take away the intuition or thinking part a bit. I believe a trader, like an engineer, must have a good intuition about his or her numerical methods. My observation is Airedale truly mastered the Hurst's methods in that sense...

So no, although I studied Hurst's actual course notes, there is no such thing in my method called the mid-channel pause, it is all about time frames and dominancies for me and I would not exactly know what's gaining more strength etc since the computer does them for me. The former is a terminology within the Hurst's methods and it makes sense within the context of the numerical approach that Hurst applied...

- kisa

Your time series analysis methods are what Victor Neiderhoffer uses, I believe. Works great when there isn't a high sigma event. One of the problems of following a system is that it is rigid, and does not allow for human interference, otherwise it totally jacks up the system. Thus high sigma events, even if you had sniffings of it, cannot be accounted for. That was probably a reason why Victor took it in the rear with 98 melt down.

This is in no way scientific, but I think a high sigma event maybe coming our way.