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#1 greenie

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 08:38 PM

yesterday you mentioned that you expect NDX to make new recovery high soon. Would you please explain what the forecast is based on? I am trying to understand the bullish picture to stay out of trouble. Thanks a lot, Greenie
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#2 dcengr

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 08:51 PM

It might be based on the principle that he listens to the market, when the market is talking to him. Sometimes I think my dog is talking to me about the market, and I try to listen. But then I realize I'm heavily doped on drugs. NEVER EVER LISTEN TO ANYONE ELSE'S OPINIONS ON THE MARKET NO MATTER HOW MUCH OF A GENIUS HE/SHE SEEMS LIKE AT THE MOMENT WITH WHATEVER MUMBO JUMBO THEY SPIT OUT. One must understand the methods, back test it if possible, then come to one's own conclusions. If you are following a guru who says elvis tells them which way the market is going, you better be fully prepared for the consequences. If you cannot honestly say "yeah this is why this guru is taking such a trade" then you're beyond hopeless and the market sharks will eat you alive.
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#3 greenie

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 09:59 PM

That's not the point. If he came to his conclusion based on some unique method, it is nice for me to learn about it, because it could be another tool in the arsenal. Until I know the method and backtest it, his comment is just another opinion without much merit to us.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#4 dcengr

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Posted 25 January 2007 - 10:10 PM

That's not the point. If he came to his conclusion based on some unique method, it is nice for me to learn about it, because it could be another tool in the arsenal. Until I know the method and backtest it, his comment is just another opinion without much merit to us.


NAV is a momentum trader. I am not going to pretend to understand his methods, but he's good at using it. Momemtum trading works often, and yesterday was high momentum day. Many expected the momentum to continue.

My thoughts on it is that momentum trading is highly applicable BETWEEN the time frame of tops and bottoms, when the trend is strongly in force. When the trend is up, you get a high momentum day, next day probably carries that momentum.

Probably doesn't work so hot near tops and bottoms.. but thats just my thoughts on it, seems to make sense to me. I tend to think tops and bottoms are violent affairs, with lots of reversals until one side gives up. So you may get quick bursts of momentum, but it may not last as long as during trending periods.
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#5 NAV

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 05:45 PM

yesterday you mentioned that you expect NDX to make new recovery high soon. Would you please explain what the forecast is based on? I am trying to understand the bullish picture to stay out of trouble.


Thanks a lot, Greenie


Greenie,

My reply in a post above.

Essentially, uptrend is intact. None of my daily pivots are broken. Expanded wave 2 correction. Complex bottoming on hourly. Never fade those complex bottoms. They will at a minimum produce violent bounces.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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