6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

FYI:
Sentimentrader.com shows a big bearish jump S/T.
During the past year, a one day jump to this level has usually resulted in an up move the next day in SPX.
We saw a similar jump following the April 7,May 13, Nov. 27, and Dec 18th declines which resulted in positive following days.
One very similar pattern which failed was following the June 6th selling but this was following an extremely bullish reading June 3rd.

Several of these opened near flat but had long tails before closing up.
Most moved about 10 points total, bottom to top.

[dcengr]

FYI:
Sentimentrader.com shows a big bearish jump S/T.
During the past year, a one day jump to this level has usually resulted in an up move the next day in SPX.
We saw a similar jump following the April 7,May 13, Nov. 27, and Dec 18th declines which resulted in positive following days.
One very similar pattern which failed was following the June 6th selling but this was following an extremely bullish reading June 3rd.

Several of these opened near flat but had long tails before closing up.
Most moved about 10 points total, bottom to top.

The man who runs that website says he's more inclined to sell the pop on any rallies coming out from this oversold condition. For what its worth.

[Rogerdodger]

I should have said they could be one day wonders. So it would be only a trade most likely. Not a lot of fully shorts here at TT.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 January 2007 - 10:56 PM.

[maineman]

I should have said they could be one day wonders.
So it would be only a trade most likely.

Not a lot of fully shorts here at TT.

Just a small observation: The low VIX is indicative of the extremely low volatilty we've had for a LONG time. As such, traders are rusty on their volatilty... the recent zig zagging may take some getting used to, and so we are seeing edgy traders, not fully committed traders one way or the other.... (fwiw)



mm

[eminimee]

a few thoughts...I prefer Black at the moment.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=8&i=p67438202531&a=96036193&r=6539.png

[spielchekr]

50% retrace looks certain on my $NYA chart.

[OEXCHAOS]

Guys, yesterday was a nasty reversal. Most bulls are stunned and inactive. Most traders were caught wrong footed and aren't used to this type of fake-out. If Jason is using options data, he's probably seeing an artifact of folks rushing to put hedges on. Normally they'd work their orders, but yesterday, they HAD to pay up for protection. It throws a lot of numbers off. We don't have nearly enough Bearishness yet. That can (and probably will) change, but the context is of a lot of small hedge funds and traders leaning a bit too far long and not nearly enough short. I see that as a prescription for a correction. All we need is a small amount of weakness confirmed by poor breadth. The sentiment this weekend will tell me more. My first inclination is to look for a 5-8% correction, IF we confirm. Stress IF. Mark