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Where I Think We Are Now...


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#1 IndexTrader

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 11:04 AM

Two days ago we closed at a new high for the SPX, unconfirmed by the NDX, and unconfirmed by a number of momentum type indicators. That new high close got widespread acceptance as a breakout, eventhough the NDX had previously broken out and failed. Yesterday, we went straight down. Out of 7 hourly bars, only one was up about mid-day. That gave us a what I would call a reversal. The problem with this particular reversal is that it also creates the possibility of a double top. You're aware though that it can't be a double top until it takes out the neckline. That would be the early January lows around 1404 SPX. So right now we have a potential double top on the SPX....with the NDX in the lead. The economic news has been interesting: disappointing existing home sales....down we go. Strong durable goods report....down we go. Stronger than expected new home sales....down we go. Is that the market speaking to us? A few other technical notes: we currently are testing the rising trendline on the SPX...and the rising 50 day average. These could obviously lend support...we shall see on that. Further, on an intraday basis we're getting to be in an oversold area....so we could potentially bounce from here. All that said, I continue to hold ES shorts from 1435.00 with a wide stop. I think a rally, if one should occur, will have difficulty getting above 1435 at this point on the futures. But there is considerable downside potential in my opinon. Again, though, it would not surprise me to see a little jockeying around here as we consolidate, test the rising trendline/50 day average. Rallies are for selling in my opinion, if they should occur. IT

#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 12:03 PM

To add to your thoughts, IT, we've had more than enough Bullishness among the Small Hedged funds AND the amateurs at Rydex to setup a dandy correction. The Weekly MACD is flat at best on the S&P and negative on the NDX. Summation flashed another sell yesterday and the cumulative A/D volume is likely to give a Sell on the Naz today. We're still a bit away from that on the NYSE. The S&P Daily Futures closed under the 21-day SMA and the Cash is currently below the 21-day too. With the current sentiment back drop, my position is that we need to respect our sells. Mark

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#3 swingtrader

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 12:24 PM

I think the market are flat at the moment. We saw some voilent up days with no follow up and some down days no too much of a follow up too. The market is either still making a top or consolidating before the next big move. FWIW

#4 Cirrus

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 12:59 PM

Everything except price is flashing a warning signal, IMO. Price now looks to have 'confirmed' things. I suspect that before we get a really nice down move we will have to hammer out a top over a few weeks but ya never know.

#5 hiker

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:21 PM

dc - lack of respect being shown in your comments. such does not engender respect being shown to you, tho' I expect many will continue to extend tolerance to your views in a volatile market...perhaps you can learn from the courtesy that is regulary extended to you... these boards seem to benefit from diversity...not from showing disrespect to the knowledge and opinions of others. have a good weekend....I am going into lurk mode at TT....lack of respect being shown to one of the most helpful individuals in many settings is simply not much fun to experience. goodby all.

Edited by hiker, 26 January 2007 - 01:24 PM.


#6 dcengr

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:22 PM

[quote name='jmicou' post='268278' date='Jan 26 2007, 10:15 AM']
[quote name='dcengr' post='268276' date='Jan 26 2007, 11:07 AM'] [quote name='fib_1618' post='268272' date='Jan 26 2007, 09:58 AM']
[quote]
Putting this portion of the chat into better context, these specific statements referred to the fact that the ratio adjusted NYSE advance/decline line closed above the highs that have stood for close to a half a century, and so being, constitute a third wave under strict Elliott Wave guidelines.

As far as "throwing in the towel" is concerned, the market has this remarkable capability of methodically changing the minds of those who have been on the wrong side of things in ways that do create this same colorful metaphor. Some have recently done so in the last 6 months, but the great majority won't until the market wants them to....either because of personal bias or ego that blinds this same crowd from acknowledging what has already been a foregone conclusion. It just all depends on which emotion is the greater of the two, and when finally succumbed to, is usually near the top of this same third wave structure of one degree or the other.

Back to lurker mode.

Fib
[/quote]

The last quote is not in context of all of his trades, especially since last summer when he called the low and went long. You may want to see where and when he exited those.

Might add, I entered some longs wrongly recently, but once there is confirmation of an IT change, so will my trading bias.
[/quote]

I'm not knocking his ability to trade. I think most people here are good traders and profitable. Everyone has their methods, no method is 100% fool proof. Fib is probably one of the better traders on this board.

What I stated is:

1. He went long 2 days ago at top tick.
2. He firmly believes in his analysis that we are in primary wave 3.

That is all. Any interpretation that I believe Fib should be faded is not true. I do believe he's an excellent moneyflow analyst, and if the market goes down, I think many would appreciate some analysis where money flow failed. If it goes up, I think many would also appreciate why it worked.

The actions of last 2 days does not have any bearings to longer IT trend at the moment.
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#7 pdx5

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:24 PM

My opinion based on voracious reading of finance related articles is pretty much in agrrement with Index Trader's post. Basically there is probably some blood left in this bull IT leg before he drops from exhaustion. The new highs/new lows are horrendously high to cause sudden change of direction.
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#8 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:46 PM

I don't know how to clean this thing up, but I know this: WE DON'T BEAT UP ON PEOPLE FOR BEING WRONG. Everybody buys top tick every once in a while. I put a hedge on at top tick, in fact. I took it right back off, too. D may not have intended to beat somone up, but between greenie and he, it was out of line disrespectful. Crummy, in fact and I'm disappointed. This game is hard enough to play without being sniped at when you hang it out there for all to see. Mark

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#9 NAV

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 02:24 PM

dcengr,

Fib_1618 is one of the top notch analysts when it comes to IT and LT timeframes. I have seen him wrong many times when it comes to ST, but has been consistently right on the IT timeframes. I would unequivocally say he is one of the best around in that timeframe. Making fun of him only goes to show that you are a newbie to TA.

You also called my methods mumbo jumbo in one of Greenie's posts below. What is mumbo jumbo about that i post ? LOL if you think my methods are based on some oscillators crossovers and traditional momentum methods, you have ways to go. I will give you my ocillators and you make the calls.

Geez, give some credit to that airedale guy - one of the best cycles analysts on this board. You even downplayed his contributions in one of the posts below.



http://www.traders-t...showtopic=65574

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=65577

Now this is not a challenge. You seem to be so knowledgeable with all the TA methods. Give 10 signals starting from tommrow with whatever TA methodolgy or mumbo jumbo you use. If you get more than 6 signals right, i will start worshipping you. Not the hedged analysis please - just unhedged market direction/signal ! Ready ??

Edited by NAV, 26 January 2007 - 02:32 PM.

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#10 dcengr

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 02:38 PM

dcengr,

Fib_1618 is one of the top notch analysts when it comes to IT and LT timeframes. I have seen him wrong many times when it comes to ST, but has been consistently right on the IT timeframes. I would unequivocally say he is one of the best around in that timeframe. Making fun of him only goes to show that you are a newbie to TA.

You also called my methods mumbo jumbo in one of Greenie's posts below. What is mumbo jumbo about that i post ? LOL if you think my methods are based on some oscillators crossovers and traditional momentum methods, you have ways to go. I will give you my ocillators and you make the calls.

Geez, give some credit to that airedale guy - one of the best cycles analysts on this board. You even downplayed his contributions in one of the posts below.

Now this is not a challenge. You seem to be so knowledgeable with all the TA methods. Give 10 signals starting from tommrow with whatever TA methodolgy or mumbo jumbo you use. If you get more than 6 signals right, i will start worshipping you. Not the hedged analysis please - just unhedged market direction/signal ! Ready ??


I think I made it clear that I thought Fib was a good trader.

I think I also made it clear that I think your methods, whatever they are, makes you a good trader.

And I also made it clear that I respect Airdale's methods, as he's also a good trader.

And in the event its not clear, I am bearish IT and currently have a short position. As for giving signals, sure if you want them, I will :). I don't think you'll worship me if it was right or wrong, however :lol:.

FWIW, I think its more constructive that we share ideas rather than constantly tell each other "are you listening to the market?" Don't you?
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