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Oil Services : entering the sweet spot


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#1 A-ha

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:20 PM

here it comes folks, buckle uppppp!

this one will make a new 52 week lows as the market is about to find out why those low P/Es and valuations didnt help... earnings.

I am absolutely in love with this massively institutional and trending money machine.

In a year I traded this sector more than 5 times with each one with %5 -%10 profit, played both sides.

Once again, perhaps luckly, I am short heavily from the swing top and the largest position I ever taken in this sector since my first trade.

Edited by xD&Cox, 26 January 2007 - 01:25 PM.


#2 Cirrus

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:24 PM

xD, I'm looking for some sort of energy complex low as spring arrives. Look back over the past 4 years and there's been and OSX low/buying op every shoulder season without fail. If you look to buy a low in the daily OSX chart each spring and fall you would be batting 100% dating back to 2003. That means 2 buying ops per year if you're a position trader. I have really been forcing myself not to buy the sector as I'm expecting better ops in March and April.

#3 A-ha

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 01:33 PM

xD,

I'm looking for some sort of energy complex low as spring arrives. Look back over the past 4 years and there's been and OSX low/buying op every shoulder season without fail. If you look to buy a low in the daily OSX chart each spring and fall you would be batting 100% dating back to 2003. That means 2 buying ops per year if you're a position trader.

I have really been forcing myself not to buy the sector as I'm expecting better ops in March and April.



Makes absolutely sense because after this earnings, new fundamental conditions will take over with Oil is going nowhere but up or flat while Iraq situation creating a massive bussiness potential for drillers and service providers.

During this time, the market will likely be obsessed with the numbers and bearish sentiment will take over , which will help to form a solid bottom.

#4 Shazzam

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 02:48 PM

One note of caution, the weather is supposed to be extremely cold for the next two to three weeks and should result in big natural gas draws. The market is quite negative about nat gas yet nat gas continues to hold up rather well. The NOAA will come out with their new 8-14day weather outlook half our before the close today, my guess based on forecasts that I have seen will force them to come up with a colder forecast which should hold energy up and at least cause the commodities to rally in the near term. Best of luck in your trade.

#5 Sentient Being

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 03:08 PM

I'm still long IEO (oil/gas etd). The stop is now at about +1% (just a hair under). So until I'm stopped out I guess I'm opposite you on oil,now. I am now planning to slide my stop upwards daily down under the short term up trend / support line. Today IEO on my delayed quotes appears to be up. I'll be pushing that stop up tonight unless things reverse and stop me out before the close. I'm getting signals that this run may be finished with, but my position is still hanging on.
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#6 A-ha

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:14 PM

Oil is up more than %2 and oil stocks are down.... So while I am right about my current short position as well as the possible future direction of both oil and oil stocks, you are also getting a small extension on your ride, mainly because of the current whether situation in north east. Therefore I think you made a smart decision by moving your stop just a hair under.

Edited by xD&Cox, 26 January 2007 - 04:14 PM.


#7 Sentient Being

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:27 PM

Oil is up more than %2 and oil stocks are down....

So while I am right about my current short position as well as the possible future direction of both oil and oil stocks, you are also getting a small extension on your ride, mainly because of the current whether situation in north east.

Therefore I think you made a smart decision by moving your stop just a hair under.


It's so freaking cold I'm not going to walk the dog today. they say it feels like -10 out there. I tried walking the dog yesterday and half way through wound up running back for cover.

Yeah, until the very short term trend line is violated, I'll keep pushing that stop along daily. But like you, I have reason to think the party may be over for now, yet since we NEVER know, I decided to play the trend line and hold back a bit instead of taking a quick 4% or 5%. I expect the wining move would have been to take the quick pop and walk away, but I want to give it a chance to prove me wrong, I didn't take the trade thinking it would be a quick pop and nothing more.
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#8 PorkLoin

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:40 PM

Despite the last couple days, oil stocks have been positively diverging like a big dog against crude oil since the oil price top in July. $WTIC is down 29.6%, OIH is down 9.5%, $OSX down 8.9% and XLE is only down 1.3%. That last one is wild. Doug

#9 dcengr

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 05:26 PM

I have this geopolitical view on oil right now. On one hand, I think the government is trying to bankrupt Iran, Venezuela, and Russia by driving oil prices into the gutter. On the other hand, I think the government maybe trying to push prices down for an eventual conflict with Iran and thus limit the upside of oil prices when that occurs. I don't think supply/demand side in oil has changed a whole lot over the past year. So one of these two events is going to drive the market. Too risky for my blood.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#10 Tal

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 02:12 PM

I recently read in a Middle Eastern publication that Iran has been banking on a $100 per barrel and they've been spending like crazy on their various programs, anticipating all the oil revenue that $100 / barrel would generate. The further Crude declines, the further their economy will hurt. It's certainly possible for US to try to keep Oil prices down to hurt the economies of those against us until our objectives are met. Also, I read that our friends, the Saudies, have been projecting a $27 / barrel Crude Oil in their 2007 annual budget. Tal