4 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Sentimentrader.com jumped back to a bullish reading.
Last night, I said that I would be inclined to buy weakness Friday as the bearish jump I saw Thursday evening usually resulted in a rally the following day with about 10 point top to bottom total move in the SPX.
The one exception was June 6th. (See chart below.)

With S&P futures positive, the opening was faded. We got a 10 point down move in the first 30 minutes!
And then 10 points back up in the last hour, and then sold off for a -1.39 points on the day.
So you could have bought weakness and got a chunk of the 10 points.
Not bad for all the bad news with white candles in the Russell and Nasdaq and others nearly flat.


Next week the Fed will meet and the chance of a rate cut is now close to zero.
Their announcement will be Wednesday.


The current price and sentiment pattern looks a bit like early June. Not good.


(PS: Note also how the extreme bullish sentiment stopped the early June rally.)

Edited by Rogerdodger, 27 January 2007 - 11:52 AM.

[A-ha]

That was also obvious here on TT yesterday. I expect a broad sell off on volume on Monday. Several indices marginally brokedown yesterday.

[jawndissedi]

That was also obvious here on TT yesterday.

You got that right. Short selling on this board has been cured by aversion therapy.

Aversion therapy is a form of psychiatric or psychological treatment in which the patient is exposed to a stimulus while simultaneously being subjected to some form of discomfort. This conditioning is intended to cause the patient to associate the stimulus with unpleasant sensations, and to then stop a certain behaviour.

Aversion therapies can take many forms, from relatively mild (simply scolding a child for mischief, or placing unpleasant-tasting substances on the fingernails to discourage nail-chewing), to other behaviours, such as giving disulfiram to an alcoholic to discourage drinking, or even application of electric shocks. -- Wikipedia

Watching the panicky exits of ribbon-clerk shorts here yesterday, you could see how well it works.

[esther231]

Nice work. Much thanks.

[Rogerdodger]

Nice work.
Much thanks.

Your welcome.
But it's like the movie "Groundhog Day"
Everyday's the same but a little different.
Notice that big tall candle wick on June 7th.
It would be nice to see one of those Monday to short.