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1966.. back to the future


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#1 dcengr

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 03:07 PM

In light of the war protests going on in DC right now, I thought I'd put an update on the price correlation between the 1966 pattern and today's pattern.

As you may recall, I noted that in history, the top of 1966 came about shortly after President Johnson committed more troops to Vietnam. Ofcourse, there's a recent parallel with President Bush doing the same for Iraq.

Though this price pattern is a decent match, there's a difference under the hood. The a-d cumulative line of NYSE was diverging in 1966 after that big decline, and there's no such thing occuring currently. Economically, there are other similarities to 1966.. mainly that the yield curve was inverted, the GDP was advancing, etc etc.

One can probably go nuts doing comparisons in all aspects, but thats not the purpose here. There are some theories that price patterns, despite what occurs under the hood, or socially, or economically, are all that's needed to predict an outcome in many cases. So in that light, whether one agrees or not, is the context of this comparison.

It is being updated since I found it interesting that war demonstrations are heating up, not unlike what occured in 1966.

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#2 selecto

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 05:31 PM

Nice, thanks. You are putting up some good stuff today. [attachment=5217:attachment]