What kind of topping pattern is this ?
#1
Posted 27 January 2007 - 06:58 PM
#2
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:13 PM
here is an article talking about larger size broading tops...
BROADENING TOPS IN 1929, 1957, 1987, 2000 & 2006
#3
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:36 PM
Its not certain yet if this is a broadening top until the price goes lower than the previous low. Even then, like many TA patterns, its not one until the entire sequence is completed (ie only the pattern in hindsight).
A risk/reward scenario would've been to ASSUME that it is a broadening top, and therefore short at the time the price tagged it at the upper line (which is what I did), then continue to move stops down until price tags the lower boundary. If you missed that low risk tag of the upper line, then risk/reward gets a bit more muddled at this point.
Edited by dcengr, 27 January 2007 - 08:37 PM.
#4
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:50 PM
#5
Posted 27 January 2007 - 08:54 PM
#6
Posted 27 January 2007 - 09:00 PM
XD.... DC.... I suppose that could be the case, I first thought maybe a diamond
top.
In any event these are not common, they are rare, very rare. Just look back at the
previous tops, they looked nothing similar, and I'm talking immediate pattern, days
over week or two pattern, not a month or two.
In my experience watching charts, this more often than not is a consolidation
continuation pattern. I've nailed a bunch of them, this one I may get wrong.
Have a plan, if it goes well, let it run. If it doesn't, hit the eject button .
#7
Posted 27 January 2007 - 09:11 PM
#8
Posted 27 January 2007 - 09:20 PM
Except for a few posters, this entire board is already counting the
money on the next bear market profits.
No, position polls clearly show that bulls outnumber bears.. not to mention practically every poll (except for blogger poll) shows bulls > bears.
My guess is those posting are more bearish leaning vs the larger silent bull population.
It may seem odd, but you should look at the II poll results of the very last top in september 2000. The bull/bear ratio wasn't as high as you would expect of a bull market blow off. The bears were quite active. Only time will tell if this bull market will end that way or only with a massive blow off of bullish orgasm.
#9
Posted 27 January 2007 - 09:38 PM
#10
Posted 28 January 2007 - 07:54 AM
...here's my take if interested....
..can't get an hourly chart on dax but looks like an ED and either have one more slight high or it's done. For what it's worth...I'm IT bearish (6-8 weeks) and Long Term very bullish provided we don't close a week down the road below 1325 SPX.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$DAX&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&i=p53261287492&a=94995474&r=1382.png