17 replies to this topic

[hiker]

I am long ...a small position and considering adding after earnings if the entry is desirable, with good stop management. Trade time frame may be as long as it takes to move above $47 to 49 area. sure I may stop out or book profits on a moment's notice. ------------------- greenie has posted that he likes some short setups xD is looking to short, and he has stated such for some time. SemiB speaks only to the potential downside. --------- to my knowledge, two of the portfolio managers (Bill Miller and Richard Freeman) known for the best profit capture in both up and down markets ...and known to have among the smallest portfolio turnover rates with good std deviation and sharpe ratios are holding SNDK in their fund portfolios... --------- I have made a note for fun, greenie, of Friday's close on Q's and on SNDK..and will report % gain or loss every six months..next in August let's say. You are betting on both going down between now and then it appears. I hope I can buy the Q's someday between 34-36...I hope you are correct.....of course, things change I may not ever like the Q's for a swing trade again.

[greenie]

I have made a note for fun, greenie, of Friday's close on Q's and on SNDK..and will report % gain or loss every six months..next in August let's say. You are betting on both going down between now and then it appears. I hope I can buy the Q's someday between 34-36...I hope you are correct.....of course, things change I may not ever like the Q's for a swing trade again.

Sure hiker. I am not taking any position on SNDK (missed the best short entry few days back), and instead I shorted ATVI two days back when it broke the uptrend line on volume and failed on retest. Also, I have Qs short as I mentioned. We can compare every three months about how the trades are proceeding. I will post here, if I close or get stopped out on Qs.

Edited by greenie, 28 January 2007 - 09:09 PM.

[SemiBizz]

SemiB speaks only to the potential downside.

I guess you missed this part...

either the chips are going to come back as a group and take SNDK back up or they are going lower and SNDK is going to fall under 35 and head for the lower gap.

So, the way I see it is related to the group. If the group continues the dive, SNDK can be expected to outperform the group going down. Of course, if the fund managers get over their paranoia about semiconductors then SNDK can be expected to outperform on the upside.

Overall though, I emphasize Caution regarding buying these chips based on the 3 C's
1 Convergence
2 Consolidation
3 Consumer weakness

Keep in mind, the future is not MORE semiconductors, it's going to be LESS per capita as new offerings converge old products for example like handset, PDA, browser, pager and camera into a single unit... and as new advances in VLSI allow chips to be consolidated to a smaller number of chips per final product.

Edited by SemiBizz, 28 January 2007 - 10:17 PM.

[James Quillian]

I have a lot of respect for this particular chart pattern. I closed my LT short when the descending wedge broke to the upside. This slow start and retracement are typical of breakouts from this pattern.

[greenie]

I was also about to post the same thing. In addition to the descending channel, if SNDK breaks the upper downtrend line, maybe it will go up to close the big gap. Until then, it is best to wait and watch.

[vitaminm]

SNDK

http://finance.yahoo...NDK&t...0&a=&c=

[SemiBizz]

Frankly, I don't see anything here to get excited about long or short. This thing is making a sideways move on mediocre volume. It is building cause to make a move. Basically being held up by the interested parties (MMs) to see if anyone will come in and buy it. The upside move on quality of volume was TRUNCATED on 1/11 on VOLUME. There was no new high made on that strong volume and it turned into a Volume Off the Top exercise. I sure would not feel very comfortable long in that environment.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 January 2007 - 10:28 AM.

[SemiBizz]

Greenie, Thanks for bringing this up. I was curious to get a fundamental read on this. I talked with a contract manufacturing CEO friend of mine this morning. He discontinued his "channel" business last year including all the NAND flash modules, because of deteriorating margins. He said that although SNDK has the brand, the fab and all the resources to survive it, that the picture for consumer is crumbling overall. I will short any move towards the recent high, should Wall St. be able to sell the chip story.... Cheers...

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 January 2007 - 11:03 AM.