9 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the chart below was based on applying Hurst's formal phasing analysis (FPA) in combination with a commonality phasing model of approx 48 stocks and sectors. this commonality phasing model lists only unambiguous cycle troughs determined by FPA's of each of the 48 components. there are times when non cyclic events will increase the amplitude up or down of any particular cycle, rendering it more visually prominent than cycle lows to the right or left. this can lead to mislabeling of that cycle trough. the commonality model is a major aid in properly labeling cyclic lows.

XLF is one of the sectors in the commonality model i use, and i used XLF in the chart below to list the locations of the cycles in the Hurst model. it is one of the better visual representations as well.

these cycle troughs are also for INDU, SPX, NYSE and NASD. cyclic trend for NASD has been weaker than for the senior indexes.

the right high translation in the current 4.5 yr cycle is due to the sum of the uptrends of all larger cycles. IMO 2003 was also a nominal 36 wk cycle low.

the cycle markers in future time are not indicative of a price target, just a time window. there are no current downside price projections for any of these cycles.

[Rogerdodger]

Nice stuff.
Thanks for sharing your work.
It's interesting when different folks using different methods point in the same direction.
Fred Starkey is looking for an SPX low 3/12/07 then a rally to 1520. (Hear his interview with Ike)
And it fits Mark Young's ideas for an April-May high after a correction. (Hear his interview with Ike.)
Terry Laundry is looking for a mid Feb. low and possible significant 3rd quarter problems.
Jan. 22:

the market is subject to a correction going into mid February via the Rate Ts.
...the bull market started in late '02/early '03 should peak in the third quarter of '07...

Edited by Rogerdodger, 28 January 2007 - 12:13 PM.

[selecto]

Here's a doodle:

[arbman]

a few of us had the similar projections for this year at least... [1], [2].

[mortiz]

This is getting a bit off topic from Aire's innovative work with XLF Hurst cycles, but wanted to illustrate the weekly NY composite AD McSum "actual" current configuration. The raw data used for this weekly AD McSum is published weekly by the Dow Jones Company, via Barron's. The Barron's weekly AD data is calculated by Friday over Friday price changes for all issues traded on the NYSE.

No fault of Selecto's using the weekly AD McSum chart from StockCharts (very nice chart by the way), but StockCharts derives its weekly AD McSum data by utilizing daily AD McSum values from the final trading day of each week... which is a stretch for me to accept as valid weekly AD data. Selecto is only using what StockCharts provides, and shame on StockCharts.

This homemade weekly NYSE AD McSum chart pales in quality compared to the SC format, but does provide a snapshot of the current actual status of the weekly AD McSum. The weekly $NYSI is closing in on +1500 and when it does finally roll over, there are usually muted (if any) corrections followed by higher prices. This chart has been truncated to illustrate the weekly AD $NYSI action from 1995, but the available weekly AD data from 1940 tells the same story of $NYSI posting at or above the +1500 zone.... higher prices always follow, at worst case within a few months if there is a noticeable price correction.



The composite weekly AD MCO has been struggling to remain above zero over the past few weeks, thus the $NYSI weekly postings have virtually no noticeable spacings, but continues to rise albeit with a loss of upside momentum. The power of the weekly $NYSI from the summer 2006 price lows suggest the bull market is not quite dead yet. This time could be different, every time is different, but historically, the current configuration of the weekly $NYSI is backing the bullish case for the longer term time frame.

FWIW
Randy

[selecto]

Am I damned with faint praise? I am not concerned with actual NYSI values, so long as they are consistant, for it is the 13 ema of those numbers relative to price which interests me. (It ain't the meat, its the motion.) Aire seems to have a cycle low in July. I cannot disagree

Edited by selecto, 28 January 2007 - 04:08 PM.

[dcengr]

Randy,

From a historical perspective, you said "every time it peeks above 1500, resulted in higher prices".

Could you tell us how many times this has occured in the past? It would be interesting from a valid statistical perspective (ie enough sample points). If, going back 100 years of the market, this has only occured 3-4 times, and although 100% of the time it has resulted in higher prices, the sample size would not be statistically relevant from this observation alone.. strictly statistically speaking, ofcourse. If there's other underlying reasons why this indicator peeking above 1500 would result in higher prices, then it could.

This is getting a bit off topic from Aire's innovative work with XLF Hurst cycles, but wanted to illustrate the weekly NY composite AD McSum "actual" current configuration. The raw data used for this weekly AD McSum is published weekly by the Dow Jones Company, via Barron's. The Barron's weekly AD data is calculated by Friday over Friday price changes for all issues traded on the NYSE.

No fault of Selecto's using the weekly AD McSum chart from StockCharts (very nice chart by the way), but StockCharts derives its weekly AD McSum data by utilizing daily AD McSum values from the final trading day of each week... which is a stretch for me to accept as valid weekly AD data. Selecto is only using what StockCharts provides, and shame on StockCharts.

This homemade weekly NYSE AD McSum chart pales in quality compared to the SC format, but does provide a snapshot of the current actual status of the weekly AD McSum. The weekly $NYSI is closing in on +1500 and when it does finally roll over, there are usually muted (if any) corrections followed by higher prices. This chart has been truncated to illustrate the weekly AD $NYSI action from 1995, but the available weekly AD data from 1940 tells the same story of $NYSI posting at or above the +1500 zone.... higher prices always follow, at worst case within a few months if there is a noticeable price correction.



The composite weekly AD MCO has been struggling to remain above zero over the past few weeks, thus the $NYSI weekly postings have virtually no noticeable spacings, but continues to rise albeit with a loss of upside momentum. The power of the weekly $NYSI from the summer 2006 price lows suggest the bull market is not quite dead yet. This time could be different, every time is different, but historically, the current configuration of the weekly $NYSI is backing the bullish case for the longer term time frame.

FWIW
Randy

[airedale88]

. IMO 2003 was also a nominal 36 wk cycle low.

should read 36 yr cycle low.

This time could be different, every time is different, but historically, the current configuration of the weekly $NYSI is backing the bullish case for the longer term time frame.
FWIW
Randy

Randy, IMO the status of the longer term cycles is in accord with your read on the weekly $NYSI. whatever the resolution of late spring/summer for the 4.5 yr low, i expect new highs afterwards.

[mortiz]

DC,

With respect to the number of instances when the actual weekly $NYSI traversed, or touched the +1500 level is nine times since 1940. I do not have weekly data prior to 1940, so cannot answer the number of times a +1500 weekly $NYSI has been breached over a 100 year window.

There are several McSum patterns over history that have been rare including what is known as the daily AD McSum 3-step pattern, which is also a very bullish event, and has occured seven times since 1926 with a perfect predictive record. This exact sample size debate was run into the ground on Markets list following the last McSum 3-step pattern that commenced in May 2004 and completed in late 2004. The conclusion in that forum was you get what you get with rare patterns and until they fail, the consequences are respected.

A couple months ago, a brief study was conducted on Technical Watch for the weekly $NYSI traversing the +1200 level:

Weekly $NYSI Above +1200

Rare historical events in the markets are what they are, you can discount them or look into them more closely.

Randy

[dcengr]

DC,

With respect to the number of instances when the actual weekly $NYSI traversed, or touched the +1500 level is nine times since 1940. I do not have weekly data prior to 1940, so cannot answer the number of times a +1500 weekly $NYSI has been breached over a 100 year window.

There are several McSum patterns over history that have been rare including what is known as the daily AD McSum 3-step pattern, which is also a very bullish event, and has occured seven times since 1926 with a perfect predictive record. This exact sample size debate was run into the ground on Markets list following the last McSum 3-step pattern that commenced in May 2004 and completed in late 2004. The conclusion in that forum was you get what you get with rare patterns and until they fail, the consequences are respected.

A couple months ago, a brief study was conducted on Technical Watch for the weekly $NYSI traversing the +1200 level:

Weekly $NYSI Above +1200

Rare historical events in the markets are what they are, you can discount them or look into them more closely.

Randy

Randy, thanks for the info. I'll note this in my blog so that I can revisit the info in the next few months.