15 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Last week I heard a very interesting TV report about the "under the radar" visits made by the US administration to Saudi Arabia.
Subsequently, the price of oil began to unexplainedly drop.
All of this while the Chinese were supposed to be using it all up???
How could this happen?

I debated posting this info because if we don't show a little reserve, it will become fodder for politics which are not allowed on Traders Talk.
But it seems that this could have such dramatic effects on the US Dollar, Gold, Oil, and the markets that I am taking a chance.

So please refrain from posting political statements in reply.

Today CNBC has been continually discussing OPEC & the departing of the Saudi Oil Minister soon.
They have also mentioned that there are "discrepencies" or "conflicts" in the oil tanker reports which are used to verify the OPEC oil output.

The linked article below does much to answer questions I have had.

This is a January 23, 2007 NPR interview with Gary G. Sick, a former National Security Council adviser on Iran.
He claims an “emerging strategy” is developing that brings the United States, Israel, and Sunni Arab states in an informal alliance against Iran. He does not believe the United States would launch a military attack on Iran at this time because it lacks the military ability to be in Iraq and Iran at the same time.

He also says a “very serious opposition” to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is developing in Iran. Because of this, he says the Iranians will soon be willing to seek a deal on their nuclear program.

It sounds to me that keeping oil prices below "market" demand is being used as a weapon against Iran.
One side wants $100 oil, the other side $50 oil.

If you do a News Google on Saudi Arabia you will find several very recent events which seem to support the validity of this interview.

Interview Link

[A-ha]

Makes perfectly sense.... But I have to tell you OIH was supposed to crater today, it didnt...took me out quickly. Still I am sceptical about it but I wouldnt stay in a short term position heavily that doesnt move as planned. I believe your scenario of pressuring Iran using Oil was mentioned by dcencr several times before... but you gave more details here. So thanks both of you.

Edited by xD&Cox, 29 January 2007 - 12:49 PM.

[dcengr]

And yet.. never underestimate the fact that the Iranians understand this, and will once again incite Hamas or some other proxy group to ignite volatility in the region to jack oil prices back up. US has military strength and financial strength. Iran has covert capabilities that can be just as damaging.

[nimblebear]

Glen Beck said on his show that Cheney went over there last year and had a meeting with the Saudi's. Ever since the price of oil has dropped. Interesting coincidence.

[Data]

It's all old news. Back in November, the Saudis demanded the US stay in Iraq while they would try to drive down the price of crude in return to exert financial pressure on Iran.

http://news.yahoo.co...an_061129173057

[Rogerdodger]

It's all old news.

Yes, and look at what oil did.
What happened to all that Chinese demand?

Anyway it it just seemed to me to be a missing piece of the puzzle.
http://stockcharts.c...4129&r=6999.png

[briarberry]

I thought it was counties like Mexico who needed a higher oil price, may be Iran has loads of money, who knows ?


Mexico's Oil Output Cools - FREE PREVIEW
By David Luhnow

MEXICO CITY -- Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field tumbled by half a million barrels last year, according to figures released Friday by the Mexican government. The ongoing decline at the Cantarell field could pressure prices on the global oil market, complicate U.S. efforts to diversify its oil imports away from the Middle East, and threaten Mexico's financial stability.

The virtual collapse at Cantarell -- the world's second-biggest oil field in terms of output at the start of last year -- is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico's state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell's daily output ...

http://online.wsj.com



Local oil reserves are expected to last only nine years and eight months at current rates of production, according to precise calculations by experts, whereas in 2000 they were forecast to last 20 years and seven months. Besides, PEMEX is bankrupt.

PEMEX has debts greater than its total assets, is undertaking very little exploration, its extraction costs are rising steadily, and most of its revenues go straight into the state coffers to finance 36.1 percent of the national budget, twice the proportion that it contributed 20 years ago.

http://www.ipsnews.n...sp?idnews=36306

[colours]

I had read that the drop in oil was related to the rapid liquidation of most of the oil portfolio held by Goldman Sachs. However , if you like a good conspiracy , consider that the Secretary of Treasury was a former high ranking exec at GS with considerable pull with the Chinese . I suppose anything is possible.

[dcengr]

To compensate for the rise in oil prices, the US raised the price of tortillas on them

I thought it was counties like Mexico who needed a higher oil price, may be Iran has loads of money, who knows ?


Mexico's Oil Output Cools - FREE PREVIEW
By David Luhnow

MEXICO CITY -- Daily output at Mexico's biggest oil field tumbled by half a million barrels last year, according to figures released Friday by the Mexican government. The ongoing decline at the Cantarell field could pressure prices on the global oil market, complicate U.S. efforts to diversify its oil imports away from the Middle East, and threaten Mexico's financial stability.

The virtual collapse at Cantarell -- the world's second-biggest oil field in terms of output at the start of last year -- is unfolding much faster than projections from Mexico's state-run oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex. Cantarell's daily output ...

http://online.wsj.com



Local oil reserves are expected to last only nine years and eight months at current rates of production, according to precise calculations by experts, whereas in 2000 they were forecast to last 20 years and seven months. Besides, PEMEX is bankrupt.

PEMEX has debts greater than its total assets, is undertaking very little exploration, its extraction costs are rising steadily, and most of its revenues go straight into the state coffers to finance 36.1 percent of the national budget, twice the proportion that it contributed 20 years ago.

http://www.ipsnews.n...sp?idnews=36306

[selecto]

Mahmoud has served his country excellently. With just his mouth, he kept the price of oil high for quite some time, but its not working so well lately. In a recent interview Ike opinied that he wants to precipitate an attack to get prices back up.