19 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

I think this is one of those junctures sentiment could be very predictive

Edited by xD&Cox, 29 January 2007 - 06:11 PM.

[Gary Smith]

http://tickersense.typepad.com/


Speaking of sentiment, the blogger poll (over 50 of them) are at their most bearish levels of pessimism since the poll's inception this summer. These guys apparently don't get it since they (as a group) have been net bullish only two weeks since July as prices have marched steadily higher with nary a reaction.

Edited by Gary Smith, 29 January 2007 - 06:31 PM.

[dcengr]

http://tickersense.typepad.com/


Speaking of sentiment, the blogger poll (over 50 of them) are at their most bearish levels of pessimism since the poll's inception this summer. These guys apparently don't get it since they (as a group) have been net bullish only two weeks since July as prices have marched steadily higher with nary a reaction.

Since the data doesn't cover period earlier than july, its hard to gauge how they as a group view the market before the july lows...

Its not improbable that they're fully populated with perma bears. I continue to track the polls, but put less weight on it than II or other polls.

But if one wishes to use that particular poll as evidence that skepticism of the bull market is still high, ofcourse one is free to do so .

[OEXCHAOS]

Such is evidence that we probably don't have a major high in place. It also doesn't preclude a nasty little correction, which is well supported by the sentiment that I look at. Mark

[A-ha]

There is always a hook at a major top (or bottom). Big one. I have a strong feeling this one will either be A/D line or sentiment.

Edited by xD&Cox, 29 January 2007 - 07:16 PM.

[traderpaul]

Gary, Did Jake Bernstein had the most bullish reading of the SPX traders few months ago? It was the most bullish reading ever and the market just kept on trucking.....Now, it is the most bearish reading on the bloggers and you are telling me the market cannot go down?

[Gary Smith]

http://tickersense.typepad.com/


Speaking of sentiment, the blogger poll (over 50 of them) are at their most bearish levels of pessimism since the poll's inception this summer. These guys apparently don't get it since they (as a group) have been net bullish only two weeks since July as prices have marched steadily higher with nary a reaction.

Since the data doesn't cover period earlier than july, its hard to gauge how they as a group view the market before the july lows...

Its not improbable that they're fully populated with perma bears. I continue to track the polls, but put less weight on it than II or other polls.

But if one wishes to use that particular poll as evidence that skepticism of the bull market is still high, ofcourse one is free to do so :).

dcr, the II poll, at least for me, has been completely worthless since the 2003 lows. Prior to that it was a pretty darn good sentiment indicator. I believe the lowrisk.com poll also confirms the bearishness of trader nation since the July lows. The Rydex asset levels and the NYSE Members data is also comforting to the few bulls I see on the trading forums. Bearishness seems too entrenced here with the averages so close to historic and/or recovery highs.

[no_mind]

Here's some info I picked up this weekend on the AAII from Between the Hedges:



The AAII percentage of Bulls plunged to 39.51% this week from 57.58% the prior week. This reading is now below average levels. The AAII percentage of Bears rose to 33.33% this week from 27.27% the prior week. This reading is now above average levels. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of Bears is currently 37.2%, an above-average level. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of Bears peaked at 43.0% at the major bear market low during 2002. Moreover, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of Bears is 36.9%, a very high level seen during only two other periods since tracking began in the 80s.

[dcengr]

http://tickersense.typepad.com/


Speaking of sentiment, the blogger poll (over 50 of them) are at their most bearish levels of pessimism since the poll's inception this summer. These guys apparently don't get it since they (as a group) have been net bullish only two weeks since July as prices have marched steadily higher with nary a reaction.

Since the data doesn't cover period earlier than july, its hard to gauge how they as a group view the market before the july lows...

Its not improbable that they're fully populated with perma bears. I continue to track the polls, but put less weight on it than II or other polls.

But if one wishes to use that particular poll as evidence that skepticism of the bull market is still high, ofcourse one is free to do so .

dcr, the II poll, at least for me, has been completely worthless since the 2003 lows. Prior to that it was a pretty darn good sentiment indicator. I believe the lowrisk.com poll also confirms the bearishness of trader nation since the July lows. The Rydex asset levels and the NYSE Members data is also comforting to the few bulls I see on the trading forums. Bearishness seems too entrenced here with the averages so close to historic and/or recovery highs.

My experience has been that AAII and lowrisk has been short term sentiment indicators because they fluctuate so much..

I couldn't tell you if the other sentiment data is "not high enough" relative to the historic and/or recovery highs..

I've posted before that I think II polls closely track trader bull % in COT. Sentiment in this respect hit some really high levels in december, but has backed off a lot since then.. I'm not sure if thats more bullish or bearish.. Mark may know more.

I am definately not seeing "buy the dips with both fists" mentality.. at least on TT..

[OEXCHAOS]

I disagree with Gary on Rydex, somewhat. Bear fund assets have fallen dramatically, but then so have all fund assets at Rydex. Bearfunds have just fallen more. In fact, there has been very little net fund buying at Rydex. This indicator is losing it's utility for now. My last strong feeling from Rydex was a several weeks ago when my RSO showed all the summer Bearishness to have been reversed. In any case, we don't have the sentiment signature for a major top. That much is clear. We do have enough accumulated Bullishness in a couple sectors to drive a bit of a correction. Right now, the weekly MACD is negative and daily and hourly measures are negative too. Breadth, however, remains iffy. The right way to play this is small, IMO, and very flexible. If you see Bearishness really spike, I'd be very alert to a resumption of the rally. If breadth deteriorates, I think you have to get more Bearish. If you want to ignore the whole damned thing, that's probably OK, too. Mark