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What would surprise you most in the next 10 days?


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Poll: What would you suprise you most in the next 10 days?

What would you suprise you most in the next 10 days?

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#11 dcengr

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 08:39 PM

Here's an interesting way to look at II poll... this goes back to 00, so we can see how sentiment looked like the last time Dow made ATHs, at least compared to in II..

Looks like around jan 00 (the period of ATH), the bullishness didn't even break 60%..

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Edited by dcengr, 29 January 2007 - 08:40 PM.

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#12 NAV

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 08:51 PM

That's great 18-7-18. Dead even poll. Mostly useless, if you were trying to gauge sentiment.

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#13 dcengr

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 08:54 PM

That's great 18-7-18. Dead even poll. Mostly useless, if you were trying to gauge sentiment.


I voted "going nowhere" would surprise me. Its been consolidating for a move a while now.. especially the secondary indices, like the RUT, MID, NDX, etc. Those have been FLAT FLAT FLAT for 2 months.

I dunna think the market's gonna take their flat action any longer.
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#14 A-ha

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 09:21 PM

That's great 18-7-18. Dead even poll. Mostly useless, if you were trying to gauge sentiment.



doesnt that mean, when it is even, a huge move is imminent... not the direction but amplitude of the move

#15 dcengr

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 09:23 PM

That's great 18-7-18. Dead even poll. Mostly useless, if you were trying to gauge sentiment.



doesnt that mean, when it is even, a huge move is imminent... not the direction but amplitude of the move


Mark should confirm.. but I thought I've read his work on sentiment that said when polls are dead even, it usually goes DOWN.. but this is from memory. And this isn't your regular poll either.
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#16 VolPivots

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 10:16 PM

Si el basis de mi forecasta es correcto mundo. Q1 nuevo luna 5/5/06 y el fin de tiempo en 5/10/06. A esta junction, Q1 nuevo luna 1/25/07 y el fin de tiempo muy pronto....el FOMC strikes again!

I have no idea if what I wrote in spanglish makes any sense, but in plain English....beware the Fed (not a prediction, but maybe one 2 many a coincidence......)

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#17 greenie

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 10:44 PM

Without considering directionality of movement, the poll suggests that 84% of traders here will be surprised, if the market breaks the trading range of last two months.

Reminds me of this poll by IYB:

http://www.traders-t...?...c=51202&hl=
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#18 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 30 January 2007 - 08:35 AM

That's great 18-7-18. Dead even poll. Mostly useless, if you were trying to gauge sentiment.


doesnt that mean, when it is even, a huge move is imminent... not the direction but amplitude of the move


Mark should confirm.. but I thought I've read his work on sentiment that said when polls are dead even, it usually goes DOWN.. but this is from memory. And this isn't your regular poll either.





Dead-even Fearless Forecaster sentiment is usually ST Bearish. It may be a big move or a smaller one, but it's a pretty reliable Sell, for a day or two.



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#19 dcengr

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Posted 30 January 2007 - 09:45 AM

That's great 18-7-18. Dead even poll. Mostly useless, if you were trying to gauge sentiment.


doesnt that mean, when it is even, a huge move is imminent... not the direction but amplitude of the move


Mark should confirm.. but I thought I've read his work on sentiment that said when polls are dead even, it usually goes DOWN.. but this is from memory. And this isn't your regular poll either.





Dead-even Fearless Forecaster sentiment is usually ST Bearish. It may be a big move or a smaller one, but it's a pretty reliable Sell, for a day or two.



Mark


Thanks mark :)
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#20 george_s

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Posted 30 January 2007 - 02:11 PM

http://tickersense.typepad.com/


Speaking of sentiment, the blogger poll (over 50 of them) are at their most bearish levels of pessimism since the poll's inception this summer. These guys apparently don't get it since they (as a group) have been net bullish only two weeks since July as prices have marched steadily higher with nary a reaction.


Hi Gary-
The blogger poll has not have been very useful for longer term investors, but could have been useful for short-term swing traders if you focus primarily on the blogger bullish percentages. There are three dates with big bullish spikes- Aug. 28, Oct. 2 and Oct. 16. Following each bullish spike there are bearish spikes on (Sept. 25, Nov. 6 and Dec. 11) which act as the sell signal. Using the S&P 500, all three of these trades were profitable if you followed the bullish bloggers opinion.

1) Buy Aug. 28 @ 1314, Sell Sept. 25 @ 1335. Profit= +21 points

2) Buy Oct. 2 @ 1350, Sell Nov. 6 @ 1381. Profit= +31 points

3) Buy Oct. 16 @ 1368, Sell Dec. 11 @ 1427. Profit= +59 points

Using this system, you would wait for the blogger bullish numbers to spike up again before buying again.