10 replies to this topic

[PorkLoin]

After the big move into year-end, many stocks have taken a breather. I'm seeing a lot of familiar consolidation patterns, after which a resumption of the prior trend is expected. I think JNN is looking good here. It's making more of an ascending triangle - flat top, rising bottom.

I like Chaikin Money Flow and the Accumulation/Distribution on charts as filters. If I see something there that's worrisome, I dig deeper and am more cautious.

With JNN, I think internal forces are too strong to let it make a symmetrical triangle (pennant).



Hourly chart to check out the pattern more closely. Nothing really jumps out at me that is bad. It's not like the volume on the downmoves vastly exceeds that of the upmoves. MACD is "coiling" like it should with a triangle. CMF and A/D still looking fine. This stock was due a breather after going from 1 to 3. It's had that now, and I bet it makes a move here pretty soon. It was certainly an uptrend going into the pattern, and I think the odds are high that the next move is up.




This one's a little weaker but I think the more pennant-like pattern is still indicative of a correction, to be followed by more rally.



Beautiful coiling action for the MACD. The volume spike a week ago was when price was moving higher. Nothing to make me think that more than patience is required here.



PDN was really cranking into the end of December, and the MACD was way high. That's corrected now (and the bottom of the histogram looks like it's trying to rise) -- the picture looks very much like JNN.



Pushing up but can't break through the "roof" yet. There are no guarantees that these are going to go on up, but I think it's the high-percentage play. What comes after a triangle? Often, a thrust equal in length to the widest part of the triangle, so that's a good thing to look for, in my opinion.

Best,

Doug

[Jnavin]

Each one of those looks good to me, Doug. Thanks for posting these charts.

[PorkLoin]

You're welcome, John. Now just have to see what happens. Doug

[PorkLoin]

SXR Uranium is trying to buy Urasia. I own the both and continue to be very bullish for the long term. However, these post-triangle thrusts are often the final moves of larger structures, and I'm wary for now.



Nice fast response from all three of these.

Best,

Doug

[PorkLoin]

Talked about this one in March of last year, and for a while it was really disappointing. Patience has paid off.
Consolidations all over the place.

Doug

[PorkLoin]

Look out, it's a little exploration company....

It's been a big winner for me since October, and I think it's near to commencing another nice upward move.


Best,

Doug

[hiker]

Doug,

I live in Wyoming where URZ is focusing much of its attention.

Shorts love this name.

Has had a nice run, so the shorts think the stock is too high.

I know a few things about the company's ops and their management.

I want to learn more...you have any thoughts about URZ chart, price pattern, or company prospects...how do you like it compared to others that trade in the US such as EMU, which I know is your largest position on your last update or vs. USEG, etc.??

thanks for the great work you do and trade in this sector...here is a link where I updated some brief chart stuff for URZ -

http://forums.techni...post?id=1729163

btw, I am now saving literally most of my trading $ for reentering the juniors on the long side..taking my time though...could be mos. or longer before i am full in again

Edited by hiker, 01 March 2007 - 06:49 PM.

[PorkLoin]

Hi Steve (Hiker),

I know little about Uranerz. I like what its website says, and like so many other uranium companies it's had a very nice move up from October.

EMU is my biggest postion due to the luck of the draw -- it merged with Quincy Energy which I owned and bought Standard Uranium, same deal, and I ended up with a lot of shares. It's been great but PDN.TO, JNN.V, etc., have given better percentage gains. I don't know as much as I should about the financial underpinnings and true prospects for these stocks. I go mainly by the charts.

Interesting that shorts love URZ. Man, I wouldn't want to be standing in the way of this one. That said, it looks to me like a time of correction is here, like many other U issues as well as stocks in general.

Patience is a virtue here, and I think you've picked a good time to be picking up juniors. You know, last March/April a lot of U stocks made highs then had a big move down to June and Sept/Oct bottoms. Who knows but maybe we see some sort of reflection in those times this year, highs or lows.

URZ -- the recent spike low at 4.60 is something to watch, and looking at the last 4 months it's obvious to me that the 4.50 to 4.75 area ought to be support. Maybe it's too obvious and you know more about that stuff than I do, but I see no reason to not keep it simple here. Need more time and price pattern from the recent high to get a better grip and forecast.

And, allow me a little fun and back-patting. This one is cracking me up:



Yesterday, after the close I said, "I think it's near to commencing another nice upward move."

Buying on the open this morning would have garnered a 49% profit thus far. I don't usually do it, but let me put on some MSS-style shades.


Best,

Doug

[hiker]

thanks so much Doug...and that WRI has been a wild ride...will never forget the retest back to 50 cent level following the move..I noticed a lot of buying in this name when I first posted it at John Bollinger's market list when it was making new highs after the above .33 breakout...a lot of those folks bought in right the next day I assume. really appreciate your time and thoughts

[hiker]

USEG..note price action vs 50 day ema and t/l ...daily support t/l..terminates just below...risk to 4.50 or so.